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UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Aldana-Holly Holm vs Irene Aldana: Prediction and Analysis

Published 10/02/2020, 10:41 PM EDT

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Holly Holm and Irene Aldana were set to fight at the UFC Apex in August. Unfortunately, the latter contracted coronavirus at the eleventh hour, which led to the bout being postponed. Now, almost two months later, the women’s bantamweight contenders will square off at the UFC Fight Night: Holm vs Aldana on Fight Island. 

Holly Holm has had a tumultuous time in the UFC ever since she beat Ronda Rousey. In eight fights after becoming the UFC bantamweight champion, she has claimed just three wins. Only two of these have come at 135 pounds. However, ‘The Preacher’s’ daughter won her last fight and will look to go 2/2 for 2020.

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Aldana has won her last three fights via submission, decision, and KO respectively. This is an indicator that she will tailor her style to combat her opponent. The 32-year-old is riding a two-fight win streak and knows a win against the highly experienced combat sports personality can propel her into championship contention.

Read: Should Holly Holm Retire From the UFC if She Loses at UFC Fight Night This Weekend?

UFC Fight Night: Holly Holm vs Irene Aldana

Holly Holm was a professional boxer before making the move to fighting. She retained her style and is averse to going for takedowns. The same holds for Aldana as like ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’, she too landed less than one takedown per 15 minutes.  However, the 32-year-old is one who would attempt to take Holm away from her vertical base, which would put her 73% takedown defense stats to the test. 

The former bantamweight champion landed 2.75 significant strikes per minute at a lowly 35% accuracy. She absorbed 2.80 strikes per minute and deflected 57% of her opponents’ attempts in 11 UFC fights. These statistics are another highlight of her time in the boxing ring. Holm bides her time, avoids taking damage, and strikes with precision. 

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Unfortunately for her age is catching up, and her opponents overwhelm her. Irene Aldana’s number shows that it could be the same story on Fight Island. 

The sixth-ranked bantamweight landed an impressive 6.16 significant strikes per minute at a 38% accuracy in eight UFC fights. On the flip side, she is prone to taking damage and absorbed a shocking 5.92 strikes every 60 seconds. She avoided 63% of her opponents’ strike attempts but hasn’t been out-landed in her last six visits to the octagon. 

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Aldana is set to dominate the striking exchanges, but her offensive style will leave the door open for Holm. She will hope to land one clean punch and prove to the world that she can still fight at the top level. However, as per the pre-fight number, it looks bleak for ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’ as the Mexican fighter has a potent Plan B. Fans would expect her to use it right from the outset and test Holm’s resolve to not submit. 

Prediction: Irene Aldana to win via third-round submission

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Written by:

Reubyn Coutinho

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Reubyn Coutinho is a Combat Sports editor at EssentiallySports with over 2 years of journalistic experience. Having earned his bachelor's degree in Mass Media with a specialization in Journalism from Xavier's College, Reubyn has interned with the sports desks at DNA and Times Now before joining EssentiallySports to further his passion for sports content. Reubyn has interviewed former UFC champions like 'Mighty Mouse' Demetrious Johnson and Miesha Tate.
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