UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Hill: Bobby Green vs Alan Patrick- Prediction and Analysis

Lightweight fighters Bobby Green and Alan Patrick fight in the first of two lightweight bouts on the main card at UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Hill. The former is making matches at the UFC Apex a habit and will enter his third fight at the facility. 

‘The King’ Bobby Green has won his last two fights via unanimous decision and is in a good place with these quick turnaround times. 

His opponent, Alan Patrick, makes a UFC return after a 22-month hiatus. He lost his last fight at the highly popular UFC 229. Now, at 37 years of age, he knows that his time as a professional fighter is slowly drawing to a close. 

‘Nuguette’ fights sporadically and has just 17 appearances in 12 years. However, he makes the most when he is fit and has 15 wins. This could be a sign that the Brazilian feels that he is ready and isn’t returning for a payday. 

Fans hope that it is the case, because on paper, ‘The King’ Bobby Green is miles ahead. 

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Hill – Analysis

Bobby Green believes in the all-out attack mentality. He landed 5.22 significant strikes per minute in the UFC at a 50% accuracy. Following a pattern seen in most fighters who use a high volume of strikes, Green takes a lot of damage. He absorbed 3.52 strikes, but to his credit, he deflected 63% of his opponent’s attempts. 

Patrick holds a black-belt in Jiu-Jitsu and landed 22 takedowns in seven UFC fights. His striking stats are negligible as he landed just 1.88 significant strikes per minute at a 43% accuracy. Combine this with Green’s strike defense stats, and a striking battle could be rendered a no contest.

The fight will be won and lost on Green’s ability to defend takedowns. He holds a 73% defense score which will be tested at the UFC Apex. ‘Nuguette’ lands 3.92 takedowns every three rounds at a 40% accuracy.

The fighter smothers his opponents to claim decision wins. He has won nine fights in this fashion. Patrick also holds a one-inch reach advantage which could provide him a fractional advantage against ‘The King’.  

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Bobby Green too would know these stats. Hence, he knows that he has a few seconds to connect cleanly before having to fend off a takedown. 

Neither fighter has finished their opponent in seven years and as they square off. It appears ‘The King’ has a better chance to end the drought. 

Prediction: Bobby Green to win via third-round TKO