A few hours from now, the UFC will wrap up its final event in Jacksonville, Florida with Walt Harris vs Alistair Overeem as the main event. Let us see how these two fighters match up against each other.

Like the previous three events, this card will not feature any fans. The card will stream live on ESPN and ESPN+. It features some amazing matches but this article will only analyze the headliner.

Background

Overeem (45-18 MMA, 10-7 UFC) will take on the rising UFC heavyweight Walt Harris (13-7 MMA, 6-6 UFC). It is worth noting that these two fighters were scheduled to fight before. But the disappearance and murder of Harris’s stepdaughter—Aniah Blanchard—forced him out of the competition.

Interesting Facts

Only 11 of their combined 85 career fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards.

All 13 of Harris’ wins have come via knockout.

Nine of Overeem’s previous 10 fights have ended by knockout. (stats via CBS Sports)

Walt Harris vs Alistair Overeem: The Prediction

With 64 matches on his record, Overeem is way more experienced than Harris. If it wasn’t for his last fight, “The Demolition Man” would have been on a 3-fight win streak. Even though he lost that match, the stoppage itself was controversial.

Also, Overeem was winning the fight until the final seconds. Harris, on the other hand, is on a two-fight win streak. He defeated Sergey Spivak and Aleksei Oleinik via TKO and KO respectively.

Overall, Overeem is a better technical striker with a good clinch and devastating knees. Whereas Walt Harris has good form in his punches, unrealistic hand speed (for a heavyweight), and also possesses the power to knock out anyone.

With regards to the mindset, it seems like Harris is more motivated than ever because of his daughter’s loss. However, we still don’t know how well he will perform under so much pressure.

If the fight ever hits the mat, Overeem should have the advantage. But a takedown attempt from Alistair is highly unlikely as he has a low takedown average of 1.3. The Dutch has enough tools to beat Harris in this fight but his chin is a big factor.

Overeem’s chin has been tested a lot and it will not withstand a power shot from Harris.

Winner: Walt Harris (Round 2, KO)