Movsar Evloev’s camp is definitely studying the tapes, crafting a game plan, and training hard to dethrone Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 333 on October 24 and become the new featherweight champion. But the reigning featherweight king believes there aren’t many paths available for his opponent to pull off the upset.

Reflecting on his next fight, ‘The Great’ stated that Evloev needs to hunt for a knockout to beat him, or his takedown defense would completely shut down the Russian’s plans to snatch the belt away.

“He doesn’t have the knockout power threat,” Volkanovski told Main Event. “But, in saying that, because I’m so confident in my takedown defense, in my game, that his best bet is to knock me out. A lot of people are like, ‘He’s going to just try and wrestle.’ That’s gonna be thrown out the window after one or two rounds. He’s gonna be getting too tired to want to keep trying to take me down.

“So literally, I believe he’d be better off just swinging and trying to catch me. Honestly, that’s what I truly believe. No one in my division can beat me in a decision. And I know that seems to be the only way he wins, but against me that ain’t happening. I truly do believe that.”

Volkanovski’s confidence in beating Evloev at his own game stems from the competitive showdown he had with Islam Makhachev at UFC 284. The Aussie fended off five of the Dagestani champion’s nine takedown attempts and was ahead in total significant strikes. However, the more impressive aspect of Volkanovski’s performance in that fight was that he managed to escape Makhachev’s grasp every time he was taken down.

Though ‘The Great’ ultimately lost the decision, he proved that he can hang with one of the best wrestlers the UFC has ever seen. As such, even Volkanovski’s longtime coach, Joe Lopez, admitted to Fox Australia that Evloev’s “defensive grappling” is a perfect style for the featherweight champion to beat him at UFC 333. Still, it’s not just Volkanovski’s confidence in defending takedowns that makes him believe a knockout is Evloev’s only path to victory.

The 37-year-old’s belief also comes from his knowledge of strikers who found success against him.

At UFC 298, Ilia Topuria cut off the cage and pressured the Aussie with combinations before finally landing a devastating left-right hook combination that put Volkanovski to sleep. After ‘El Matador’, Diego Lopes also caught the Aussie multiple times by constantly pushing forward in both of their fights at UFC 314 and UFC 325. However, the Aussie was slick enough to evade those looping punches and cruise his way to a decision victory.

So, after experiencing those matchups, Volkanovski believes Evloev’s best chance of beating him is to actively search for a knockout. Still, the undefeated 20-0 Russian might not adopt that game plan, knowing his own limitations when it comes to putting opponents to sleep.

Why Movsar Evloev won’t chase a knockout against Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 333

When it comes to Evloev’s fighting style, the 32-year-old has never been particularly big on knocking out his opponents. Instead, the Ingushetia native uses his grappling to pressure opponents on the mat and score enough points with his strikes to secure a comfortable victory. That has been the key approach behind Evloev remaining undefeated throughout more than a decade of his professional journey.

Out of Evloev’s 20 fights, he has scored only three wins via knockout and four by submission, while the rest have gone to decision. Also, seeing his relatively low number of submission victories, we can understand that the Russian doesn’t heavily rely on jiu-jitsu to secure chokes and other finishes.

The last time the undefeated fighter knocked someone out was eight years ago, when he defeated Rafael Dias via a fifth-round knockout to defend his M-1 Bantamweight Championship in 2018. Since then, all of his victories have come via decision. In comparison, Volkanovski knocked out Yair Rodriguez in the third round of their UFC 290 clash in 2023.

As a veteran of the game, Alexander Volkanovski definitely understands that if he can successfully defend his opponent’s takedowns, he could use his footwork and stance switches to land some definitive strikes and ultimately come out as the winner. Because of that, Evloev might use his usual game plan of spamming takedowns and scoring points to ultimately get the judges’ nod.

However, if the Aussie defeats Evloev, who has never been beaten before, he might actually topple Jose Aldo to become the greatest featherweight fighter of all time.

Now, what remains to be seen is whether Alexander Volkanovski can actually figure out Movsar Evloev’s crafty grappling at UFC 333 or simply become one of his victims.