Earlier this month, UFC CEO Dana White dropped some huge news for MMA fans. Arman Tsarukyan, Dan Hooker, Belal Muhammad, and Ian Machado Garry are all set to make their return on November 22 at UFC Qatar, a first for the region thanks to their deal with the MMA promotion. For Tsarukyan, it marks his first fight since defeating Charles Oliveira at UFC 300—and since withdrawing from his scheduled lightweight title clash with Islam Makhachev at UFC 311 in January.

As for Hooker, this will be his first appearance since edging out Mateusz Gamrot via split decision. More excitingly, though, Tsarukyan outpaced both Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett in the race for a 155-pound title shot to earn a crack at Ilia Topuria’s UFC gold. While White hasn’t yet confirmed Topuria’s next opponent, he did reveal that the lightweight champion could headline the Paramount card in January. In the meantime, insider Chael Sonnen has some bad news for Tsarukyan, and Hooker, for that matter.

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker is not a title eliminator due to “quick turnaround” 

“I’m well aware that Dana White has announced that [the] Tsarukyan and Hooker winner will fight for the title,” the former UFC star turned analyst said in his latest YouTube video. However, Sonnen speculated that the winner might not get the next title shot after all. “Somebody else will be next, and then the winner of that will be the number one contender,” he continued. He even claimed to have evidence backing his theory — something he overheard from the Armenian after his win over Oliveira.

“If we’re accepting [White’s] report that Ilia is going to fight in January on Paramount… and we understand that Tsarukyan and Hooker aren’t until November… that’s two months. That’s a quick turnaround,” he said confidently. “The night that Tsarukyan beat Charles Olivera, I happened to be… there when… they met Tsarukyan… and said, ‘Atlantic City, 5 weeks. Do you want to fight Islam?’ Tsarukyan said, ‘No, I just got out of the ring. I want to prepare, I want a camp for him.’”

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According to Sonnen, Tsarukyan’s earlier refusal makes it difficult to believe that the winner would immediately challenge for Topuria’s title. While he didn’t outright dispute White’s claim, he questioned whether ‘Ahalkalakets’ would be willing to make such a quick turnaround after previously turning down a short-notice fight with Islam Makhachev. From this, Sonnen also deduced during his video that “it’s not going to be Gaethje vs. Paddy ‘The Baddy’” since Justin Gaethje has already stated that he’ll only fight for the title—or retire.

Sonnen’s theory, therefore, aligns perfectly with the growing speculation about who Ilia Topuria might face next.

Who will Ilia Topuria fight next?

The Spanish-Georgian fighter appears set to defend his title against Paddy Pimblett in January 2026, according to Pimblett’s teammate Shem Rock. In a chat with Bloody Elbow, Rock hinted the fight could headline the first UFC event of 2026, with the UFC’s debut on Paramount since their $7.7 billion broadcast deal. 

“What I think and what’s really happening might be two different things, but to me, Paddy versus Ilia makes sense,” Rock said. “He’s a big star. Ilia’s a big star. First pay-per-view of the year should be that.” Rock admitted that Pimblett has been training intensely, noting, “He’s not doing that for fun. He’s training for a reason.”

Despite Rock’s claim, nothing has been written in stone, and only time will tell who’s actually getting the opportunity to hand Ilia Topuria his first UFC loss. But do you think Arman Tsarukyan is next if he wins?