Charles Oliveira opened as a slight favorite at -148 to -172 against Diego Lopes to defend his BMF title in the UFC 335 main event in December. But despite the Brazilian being favored by oddsmakers, Lopes is receiving some crucial backing to beat the former lightweight champion. The reason? Doubts remain over whether Oliveira can withstand Lopes’ power shots.

No. 15-ranked lightweight Esteban Ribovics has picked Lopes to defeat Oliveira. In an interview with Hablemos MMA, Ribovics explained that Lopes’ ability to land powerful shots and Oliveira’s deteriorating chin could eventually favor the former featherweight fighter in their upcoming contest.

“For me, Diego wins,” Ribovics said. “Both have good jiu-jitsu, but I think Diego has the chin. In those exchanges, we’ve seen Oliveira fall several times. He was knocked out by Topuria, and has been knocked down several times. We’ve also seen how people land on Diego, and his chin is strong. I think Diego might take a lot of punishment, but at some point he’s going to connect.” 

Without any doubt, Charles Oliveira has established himself as one of the greatest fighters in the sport. He holds the record for the most submission victories in UFC history, putting 17 opponents to sleep. However, the Brazilian legend’s chin has always been a relatively vulnerable aspect of his game. 

Of his 11 career losses, Oliveira has suffered five by knockout. His latest KO loss came against Ilia Topuria in the UFC 317 main event last year, where the Georgian-Spanish fighter flatlined him in the first round. But beyond the knockout losses, concerns about Oliveira’s chin mostly stem from his repeated knockdowns against heavy hitters in 155.  

Most notably, Dustin Poirier (UFC 269), Justin Gaethje (UFC 274), and Islam Makhachev (UFC 280) each scored a knockdown against Oliveira. Even Michael Chandler managed to drop ‘Do Bronx’ in their first fight at UFC 262.

Aside from his losses to Topuria and Makhachev, Oliveira has managed to recover and defeat the aforementioned opponents who knocked him down.

Besides casting doubt on Oliveira’s chin, Ribovics further noted that Diego Lopes has improved his physique and grown stronger since their training sessions in Puebla, Mexico.  

“When I trained with him in Puebla, I felt he was a good size and strong,” Ribovics added. “I’m sure he’s now even bigger in muscle and might have to cut more. I felt him strong that time and felt he was up to par with the weight class.” 

Lopes has always stood out as a big, powerful featherweight, and his ability to finish opponents has proven that.

During his run at 145 pounds, he knocked out fighters such as Pat Sabatini, Sodiq Yusuff, and Jean Silva before most recently stopping Steve Garcia at UFC White House. Plus, Lopes managed to knock down Alexander Volkanovski once at UFC 314. 

Indeed, the Aussie doesn’t have the best chin at 145 lbs, but catching an agile fighter like Volkanovski cleanly is what makes Lopes’ forward pressure even more impressive.

Also, the Brazilian-Mexican fighter has built a reputation for having an iron chin, as nobody in the UFC has managed to knock him down yet. Despite that, Lopes has two knockout losses on his record, and his last knockout loss came way back in 2018 against Amir Elzhurkaev at ACB 78.

For now, the striking and the chin advantage appear to be pointing toward Diego Lopes, who would be stronger at lightweight than he was in his previous division.  And to ensure the clash stays on the feet, the 31-year-old has also challenged Charles Oliveira to a BMF-style bout at UFC 335. 

Diego Lopes wants the BMF scrap against Charles Oliveira 

The UFC expected Charles Oliveira and Max Holloway to deliver a war when they collided at UFC 326 in March. However, the Brazilian’s grappling-heavy approach earned him the win but also drew widespread criticism for making a BMF fight boring. From Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz to even Dana White, several figures criticized Oliveira’s measured performance. 

However, Diego Lopes doesn’t want his fight against Oliveira to face the same criticism. He expects the former lightweight champion to enter the Octagon at UFC 335 looking for a violent showdown rather than a tactical fight.

“I hope so,” Lopes told MMA Fighting. “I hope he does come in with that mindset, because that’s exactly what I want. I want to get in there and throw down. Let’s see who goes down first. That’s exactly what I’m looking for.”

Lopes’ decision to challenge Oliveira to scrap on the feet also has a reason. Despite having a strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game himself, Lopes understands that his advantage over Oliveira lies in the striking exchanges. So, he didn’t hesitate to challenge Oliveira to embrace that approach before stepping inside the Octagon.

That said, with only months remaining until we witness the BMF clash, it will be intriguing to see whether Diego Lopes can prove he is better than Oliveira on the feet or whether the opposite turns out to be true.