With training videos appearing, cryptic messages foreshadowing his return, and Dana White describing negotiations as positive, Conor McGregor’s comeback at International Fight Week has seemed almost a given. On the surface, everything appears to be heading toward a massive comeback at UFC 329 in July. But not everyone in the fight world believes it.

In an exclusive interview with EssentiallySports’ Andrew Whitelaw ahead of his clash with Quillan Salkilld at UFC Perth this weekend, Beneil Dariush poured cold water on the growing optimism surrounding the Irishman’s highly anticipated return. When asked how likely it is that the former two-division champion will walk into the Octagon again, the lightweight contender expressed his skepticism without hesitation.

“I’d give it 20% for Connor,” he told EssentiallySports. “I don’t know if he’ll be back. We hear things all the time. I give it 20%.”

That line lands because it cuts through the noise. For years, Conor McGregor‘s comeback has been a cycle of promise, from announcements getting teased to negotiations discussed, only for reality to halt the process. Injuries, business ventures, legal disputes, and unsuccessful bookings have all stalled what was supposed to be a triumphant homecoming.

Even today, while rumors point to a July 11 headlining bout versus Max Holloway, nothing has been signed or formally confirmed, and fighters like Beneil Dariush are clearly not convinced until ink is on paper.

Interestingly, when asked if Jon Jones would ever fight again, the 36-year-old offered a similarly blunt yet honest take.

“I’m going to go with no,” he said.

That reveals something about how fighters perceive retirement and comeback talk. From the outside, news creates hype. Inside the sport, veterans are constantly bombarded with rumors—and until contracts are signed and names are printed on posters, many dismiss them as just talk.

This is why Beneil Dariush’s “20 percent” prediction seems significant. While fans eagerly await The Return of the Mac, one UFC lightweight contender has made it clear: believe it when the cage door closes behind him. However, that hasn’t stopped ‘The Notorious’ from keeping his fans’ hopes up.

Conor McGregor issues new UFC return statement

If skepticism is beginning to creep in, Conor McGregor is doing everything he can to keep belief alive. Rather than openly addressing speculations, ‘The Notorious’ went the way he knows best—showing flashes of training and confidence while telling the fight world that, in his opinion, the comeback is no longer a question of if but when.

Along with a new round of sparring photos on Instagram, ‘The Notorious’ sent another message.

“Legs still sharper than a guillotine,” he wrote in the caption. “Training with the young wolves, sharpening the blade. The return is coming whether they like it or not.

It’s classic Conor McGregor—part warning, part theatrics, and exactly the kind of line that rekindles hope in fans eager to see him back in the Octagon. What makes this moment even more intriguing is that on the one hand, veterans such as Beneil Dariush remain skeptical until contracts are finalized.

On the other hand, ‘The Notorious’ continues to speak as if he knows what the fight night would bring. The truth can be found somewhere in between uncertainty and conviction. Until then, the sport is left with a familiar stalemate: a fighter who insists he’s ready and a roster of veterans who will only believe it when they see it.