Dustin Poirier isn’t fighting at UFC 324, but he’s still found a way to put skin in the game. This time, it’s with predictions. And if history has taught fans anything, it’s that Poirier’s picks tend to age poorly, albeit violently. Just ask anyone who tailed his last set of predictions for UFC 322 and watched them unravel in a string of knockouts.

So when Poirier jumped on The Ariel Helwani Show and started rattling off names ahead of UFC 324, the intrigue wasn’t just about who he picked. It was about whether lightning was about to strike again.

That tension hung over the conversation as Ariel Helwani pressed him for locks in a clip shared on X by Jed I. Goodman, and Poirier didn’t hesitate. “I’m telling you, Justin by KO. That’s as tough as it gets,” Poirier said, putting his full weight behind Gaethje in the interim lightweight title fight against Paddy Pimblett.

When Helwani moved to Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong, Poirier paused, but not for long, “Oh, tough one. Song.” Heavyweights rarely need much analysis, and Dustin Poirier treated it that way. Asked about Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis, he answered with one word, “Derrick.”

However, not every matchup earned a firm stance. When Helwani asked about Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo, Poirier admitted he hadn’t fully broken it down yet, saying, “I don’t know, I’ll have to look at that one.”

The final pick also raised eyebrows. Jean Silva vs. Arnold Allen isn’t a casual fan fight, but ‘The Diamond’ didn’t waver, “Jean Silva.”

And here’s where the narrative tightens. As we mentioned earlier, the last time Dustin Poirier publicly made picks, he confidently labeled a group the “dog trifecta”: Beneil Dariush, Leon Edwards, and Sean Brady. All three got knocked out at UFC 322. That context matters because it turns his UFC 324 picks into more than opinions. Fans aren’t just listening, they’re bracing for what comes next.

This brings us to the obvious question: why is Poirier still backing Justin Gaethje when oddsmakers are leaning toward Paddy Pimblett?

Dustin Poirier puts his money behind Justin Gaethje knocking out Paddy Pimblett

For Poirier, this isn’t about hype or momentum. It’s about lived experience. He’s shared the Octagon with Gaethje twice. He’s felt that pressure, those exchanges, the chaos that builds over championship minutes. And that context shaped his stance when he broke it down on The Ariel Helwani Show.

“I just think [Gaethje’s] been in those 25-minute fights. He’s been in dogfights before,” Poirier said, pointing directly at the experience gap. He didn’t dismiss Pimblett’s rise, but he framed it as untested territory.

He went further, questioning where Pimblett could realistically take control. “I think Paddy is gonna have a tough time stopping him on the feet, and I don’t think Paddy’s gonna be able to get him down,” Poirier explained.

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Then came the line that defines Gaethje’s danger, “Justin is just a bigger puncher, and he’ll put himself in harm’s way to land one of those shots. It’s tough to stay away from that for 25-minutes.”

That belief isn’t abstract. Poirier lived it. He lost to Gaethje by knockout in their UFC 291 clash, and he sees the same ending looming. So much so that he’s putting his money behind it now that retirement allows him to wager.

According to him, “Every now and then [I partake in sports betting]. I’m definitely gonna partake in that [fight]. Yeah, [I’m going with Gaethje by knockout].”

Yet, after his UFC 322 predictions, fans know how quickly confidence can flip into irony. So when Poirier says “Gaethje by knockout,” is he seeing the fight clearer than the odds suggest? Or is he tempting fate once again? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!