As the world prepares to ring in the new year, the fight community is already looking ahead to January 18, marking UFC 311 as the first pay-per-view event of 2025. For many fans, this is when the real new year begins, as Islam Makhachev makes his highly anticipated return from a months-long injury hiatus to defend his lightweight title. His opponent, top-ranked contender Arman Tsarukyan, not only seeks to avenge his previous loss but also aims to end the reigning champion’s dominant reign.

Both fighters are in peak condition, but Makhachev remains the favorite to retain his title in what can be his record-fourth defense. UFC analyst Michael Bisping recently discussed the fight with TNT’s Adam Catterall and Nick Peet, where he made a bold prediction. He noted, “The toughest test stylistically will be going down in January, though, so he might lose that belt. It’s a rematch; he had a good showing the first time and took that on short notice, so that makes me a little unsure with my pick of Islam Makhachev. I think he will do it, but he might lose it in January.”

Michael Bisping‘s hesitation is understandable. When the two first met, Tsarukyan was a debutant, stepping in on short notice, while Islam Makhachev was already on a solid 5-1 run in the UFC. Since then, the Armenian has only lost twice in 11 bouts, currently riding a four-fight win streak, and he looks to extend that to 5 in what promises to be a tough challenge for the Dagestani native. This growing momentum is something Makhachev and his team, including Khabib Nurmagomedov, are certainly aware of.

Adding to the intrigue, Tsarukyan’s teammate, Eduard Vartanyan, recently questioned Makhachev’s ability to adapt, suggesting, “(Islam) doesn’t have any new technique.” Vartanyan believes that Tsarukyan’s evolution as a fighter will lead to his victory, dubbing him the “different Arman.” However, despite the growing concerns, there are still some key figures who firmly back the reigning champion’s victory. Let’s take a closer look.

Khabib Nurmagomedov’s ex-opponent backs Islam Makhachev over Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 311

Having felt Khabib Nurmagomedov’s raw power firsthand, UFC lightweight veteran Michael Johnson is confident in the skills of Khabib’s protege, Islam Makhachev. Johnson sees the reigning champion as possessing the same indomitable presence that made Khabib a dominant force in the UFC. In a recent appearance on Mike Perry’s Overdogs podcast, Johnson acknowledged Tsarukyan as a serious title contender but expressed skepticism about whether the Armenian can overcome the Dagestani’s dominance.

Johnson highlighted Makhachev’s all-around skills, particularly his improvements in both striking and wrestling after a decade in the UFC. He told Mike Perry, “I’m going to ride with Islam on this one. I think Arman does have a good shot with his wrestling, but we’ll see if he can take him down. He might have the better striking, but from what I’ve seen, Islam looks like he’s just getting better on his feet.”

What do you think of Michael Bisping’s prediction? Can Arman Tsarukyan rise to the occasion, dethrone Islam Makhachev, and avenge his previous loss? Or will Makhachev continue his reign and overpower Tsarukyan like so many before him? Share your thoughts and predictions below!