On November 15th, the world will witness the most anticipated superfight of the year. At UFC 322, Jack Della Maddalena and Islam Makhachev, two of the UFC’s top-tier champions, will clash, both looking to make history inside Madison Square Garden. With only a few days to go, the Dagestani stands as the favorite in the oddsmakers’ books to win this showdown. However, anyone sleeping on the Aussie champion is making a serious mistake.

Honestly, Jack Della Maddalena has flown under the radar in the buildup to UFC 322. The reigning welterweight champion has displayed incredible skill—both on the feet and on the ground. Still, many fans see Islam Makhachev as destined to become a two-division champion. Oddsmakers naturally list the former 155-pound kingpin as the favorite, given how dominantly he defended his belt four times against top contenders. But that doesn’t take away from ‘JDM’s’ very real shot at victory. Truth be told, the Aussie brings far more than just a puncher’s chance—and here’s why.

Jack Della Maddalena will hold a clear advantage on the feet

When it comes to Jack Della Maddalena’s biggest advantage, his ability to piece up opponents on the feet instantly comes to mind. ‘JDM’ is currently one of the best strikers in the UFC, and there’s little debate about it. That’s undoubtedly going to be his biggest edge over Makhachev in this weekend’s clash. If the fight stays standing for an extended period, the Dagestani might find himself in some serious trouble.   

That said, we must acknowledge that Makhachev has built a solid striking base under American Kickboxing Academy coach Javier Mendez, as he demonstrated in his bouts with Alexander Volkanovski (at UFC 284 and UFC 294) and Dustin Poirier (UFC 302). Still, he has never faced someone like ‘JDM,’ who delivers damage with relentless volume striking and keeps the knockout threat alive—not just early, but deep into the later rounds as well.

If we compare Makhachev’s past encounters with elite strikers like Volkanovski and Poirier, ‘JDM’ statistically has a superior striking profile. The reigning featherweight champion lands 6.18 strikes per minute with 56% accuracy, while absorbing 3.36 strikes, giving him an overall defense rate of 58%. On the other hand, the now-retired Poirier landed 5.24 strikes per minute with 50% accuracy, absorbing 4.57 strikes per minute, which puts his defense at 52%.

Now, coming to Della Maddalena, the Aussie lands a staggering 6.84 strikes per minute with 52% accuracy, while absorbing 4.53 per minute, which is lower than both Volkanovski and Poirier. He also boasts an impressive 64% striking defense. These stats clearly indicate that ‘JDM’ gets hit far less while maintaining a comparable level of output to Makhachev’s previous opponents. So, if the current welterweight champion can sustain that pace, he could very well outland the Dagestani on the feet.

Jack Della Maddalena ranks among the best pure boxers in the UFC, so he will look to trade with Islam Makhachev in the pocket—the same range where Poirier and Volkanovski found the most success landing their shots. Plus, he also has a bigger reach (1.85m) than the Dagestani former champ (1.79m), so landing strikes from a distance could be a good option as well.

However, Makhachev took both of them down from that position, a scenario that might play out differently with ‘JDM,’ as he has built a fighting style that lets him rise back to his feet quickly in those situations.

‘JDM’s takedown defense can pose problems for Islam Makhachev

When it comes to takedown defense, Jack Della Maddalena has set a new standard in the UFC. The Aussie has faced some of the best grapplers the welterweight division has to offer and has passed every test on the ground with flying colors so far. That naturally raises a question: What’s so special about him? Well, the answer lies in his crafty way of dealing with grapplers—something only a few fighters do effectively right now.

It’s not like ‘JDM’ has never been taken down in the Octagon. In fact, he gets taken down quite a lot. But it’s his ability to get back on his feet that makes him far better than most strikers. For instance, Gilbert Burns took him down seven times out of his eleven attempts, which is a solid number. However, Della Maddalena used his scrambles each time to get back up and countered the Brazilian legend with knees.

After doing that a few times, the Aussie recognized the pattern and finished the fight by landing a perfectly timed knee. Following that impressive display of defense, Jack was also taken down by Belal Muhammad three times out of nine attempts in their championship bout at UFC 315. There too, he managed to sprawl out of ‘Remember the Name’s top position by staying composed and not forcing a wrestle-up—a very similar approach to what Volkanovski used against Makhachev in Perth.

At UFC 284, ‘The Great’ stayed calm as the Dagestani put him on the mat multiple times and accepted each takedown. He avoided panic and denied Makhachev any openings to set up his signature D’Arce choke. Dustin Poirier also applied this approach to an extent, and both fighters used it effectively to handle the former lightweight champ on the ground.

Conversely, when Islam Makhachev swiftly took down Renato Moicano at UFC 311, the Brazilian tried to get up in a panic, which left an opening for Makhachev to secure his submission. That’s how tough it is to deal with the Dagestani juggernaut on the mat.

However, knowing that pretty well, Jack Della Maddalena will carry that awareness into Madison Square Garden, giving him an edge. With veterans like Volk and Paul Craig helping him, JDM doesn’t need to change too much to keep the fight on his terms. Moreover, the 29-year-old’s striking, which relies less on power and more on volume, makes him less susceptible to takedowns, which wasn’t the case with Poirier. This aspect of ‘JDM’s game was even highlighted by Georges St-Pierre’s coach, Firas Zahabi.

Now, with all those advantages in mind, does he actually have a chance to beat Islam Makhachev at UFC 322? You bet he does! 

Can Jack Della Maddalena claim victory at Madison Square Garden?  

For a brand-new champion like Jack Della Maddalena, fighting at a massive event like Madison Square Garden in his first title defense against a legend of the sport can be a little overwhelming. He might come across as the most “chillest bro” in the UFC, but it wouldn’t be wrong to assume that, as a human, he’ll have a few doubts heading into the biggest fight of his career.

First and foremost, ‘JDM’ needs to stay calm and composed while dealing with Islam Makhachev inside the cage. While doing that, he needs to defend the takedowns effectively. Still, there are going to be moments when he finds himself on the mat, and in those situations, he needs to trust his scrambling abilities to get out of that position and get to the center of the cage immediately.

From there, Jack Della Maddalena should control the fight on his feet and look to deal the most damage. Although Makhachev won’t be small for this weight class, it’s still a mystery whether he can maintain the same power and gas tank at a bigger weight with that added muscle mass. So, if the reigning champ uses all of those advantages, there’s no reason to believe he cannot retain the 170-pound title.

Now, the world is waiting to see whether Jack Della Maddalena can actually pull it off. We’ll find out soon enough when the cage door closes on November 15th, the spotlight hits him and his opponent, and Bruce Buffer’s voice echoes through the arena.

Until then, let us know what you think about the reigning welterweight champion’s chances of defending his belt for the first time. The comments section is yours.