The UFC has had its share of hits and misses with Fight Night events this year. But excitement will be through the roof this weekend. At the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Charles Oliveira and Mateusz Gamrot, two of the most renowned lightweight superstars, are set to collide in an anticipated lightweight showdown. It’s a classic clash between a legend and a surging contender, and fans are pumped to see who will come out on top. 

Honestly, Oliveira, who has changed his nickname from ‘Do Bronx’ to ‘Predador’, is on a mission to get back into the lightweight title race after a brutal loss to Ilia Topuria at UFC 317. To do that, the Brazilian legend must go through a very motivated Mateusz Gamrot, who has the skills to pull off a major upset. So, before both stars square off inside the Octagon, let’s take a look at what each fighter needs to be careful of. Starting with the former lightweight champion.

Charles Oliveira shouldn’t risk too much time on the ground  

This might come as a bit of a surprise, but Charles Oliveira could actually find more success on his feet than on the ground. The former 155 lbs champion indeed holds the record for the most submission wins (16) in UFC history, as well as the most wins by finish (20). But it’s important to note that ‘Predador’ has relied heavily on his jiu-jitsu skills in most of his matchups, holding the record for the most submission wins in the UFC. And that might not be as effective against Mateusz Gamrot. But why? 

Well, ‘Gamer’ has a more freestyle wrestling-based fighting style, which focuses more on pressure and control rather than submission attempts — a style that serves as a perfect counter to Jiu-Jitsu. This becomes even clearer when we look at Gamrot’s fight record. Out of his 25 wins, only 5 have come by submission, while 12 have come by decision. Much of that success can be credited to his relentless wrestling. The Polish averages 5.33 takedowns per bout, nearly double that of the Brazilian’s 2.23. And that could end up as a real problem. 

If Gamrot decides to shoot for takedowns right from the start — which he’s very likely to do — he’ll probably look to secure top control and attack Oliveira with ground-and-pound rather than hunt for a choke. That approach wouldn’t leave many openings for Predador to use his BJJ skills effectively. In fact, Arman Tsarukyan already showcased that blueprint back at UFC 300. 

Oliveira gave Tsarukyan some real problems in the first round by nearly locking in a guillotine choke. But then, ‘Akhalkalakets’ was able to use his relentless grappling pressure to take control in the later rounds. So, keeping that in mind, don’t be surprised if Gamrot follows a similar path to victory in this fight. However, things could get very interesting if the fight stays on the feet.  

Mateusz Gamrot can’t afford to get too comfortable in stand-up   

If there’s one thing that could give Charles Oliveira an edge in this fight, it’s undoubtedly his striking. While the Brazilian is best known for his world-class submission game, he also possesses tremendous punching power. Something he has showcased time and again against some of the heaviest hitters in the 155 lbs division — far more impressively than Gamrot ever has in his fights. Even though the stats might present a little different story. 

If we actually look at the numbers, the Brazilian legend lands 3.41 strikes per minute with 55% accuracy, while absorbing 3.26 strikes per minute. On the other hand, the Polish fighter lands 3.35 strikes per minute with 51% accuracy and takes 3.04 strikes per minute. With such a small discrepancy, the stats are remarkably close. Almost identical. However, there’s a catch!  

It’s not just the number of strikes that matters; their impact is crucial as well. Oliveira has gone toe-to-toe with Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, and Michael Chandler — some of the best scrappers in the lightweight division — and hurt them badly in key moments. So, if the Brazilian lands clean, it could be night-night for Gamrot.

At UFC 305, Dan Hooker actually showed how precise striking combined with volume can create major problems for the Polish fighter. ‘The Hangman’ ended up winning the bout via split decision, relying purely on takedown defense and kickboxing. Oliveira can even take it up a notch with 56% striking accuracy and devastating power. But now, the big question is: who’s actually going to take this win home? Let’s find out.   

Who’s taking the win in the UFC Rio main event?  

The UFC Rio main event might be one of the hardest fights to call this year. Both fighters are masters of their craft, and, as we’ve seen from the points mentioned earlier, each brings unique advantages into the Octagon. However, beyond pure fighting skills, Charles Oliveira has a few small but significant edges that could give him the upper hand on October 11.

When it comes to size, ‘Predador’ and ‘Gamer’ are quite similar, both standing 5’10” and weighing in at 156 lbs. In that sense, neither fighter has a clear advantage. But in terms of reach, Oliveira takes the edge with a 74-inch wingspan compared to Gamrot’s 70 inches. This gives the Brazilian the ability to land strikes from a distance without getting too close to his opponent. That would have been a solid game plan against Topuria as well, though he ended up closing the distance in that fight and got flatlined. 

Still, it wouldn’t be a stretch to expect an improved and more strategic Charles Oliveira at UFC Rio. Most likely, the former lightweight champion will make a strong comeback by defeating Mateusz Gamrot in front of his home crowd, proving doubters wrong. Especially those concerned about his quick turnaround and how he would prepare for a different opponent after the original fight with Rafael Fiziev was canceled.

That said, who’s your pick for the UFC Rio main event? Will it be Oliveira or Gamrot? Share your thoughts in the comments section below!