At UFC 264, fans witnessed one of the most dramatic endings in MMA history. The sport’s biggest superstar, Conor McGregor, was left sitting against the cage after suffering a gruesome leg break in his trilogy bout against Dustin Poirier. Yet the chaos didn’t stop there. After the fight was called off, ‘The Notorious One’ delivered one of the most infamous Octagon interviews ever, slandering his opponent while Joe Rogan held the mic beside him. Although it was a high-voltage ending, for many, though, it didn’t feel conclusive.

McGregor was carried out of the T-Mobile Arena on a stretcher in a cruel twist of fate, especially since he had predicted the very same fate for ‘The Diamond’. But the injury left fans wondering—what would have happened if the former two-division champ had never broken his leg? Could he have rallied back after being dominated on the ground? Or was it another defeat waiting for him? Well, here are some answers for you.  

Could Conor McGregor have won against Dustin Poirier?  

If we’re talking strictly based on the only round we saw, there were some really intriguing outcomes on the cards for how UFC 264 could have played out without the injury. In those final seconds of Round 1, McGregor had just stood up after surviving Dustin Poirier’s ground-and-pound—only eight seconds remained on the clock when his leg gave way. In that tiny window, ‘The Diamond’ could have landed a clean finishing shot—or the horn would have saved McGregor, pushing the fight into Round 2.

And that’s where things get interesting. ‘The Notorious One’ is absolutely dangerous in the opening rounds. His timing, speed, and knockout power are as lethal as they come. But history shows that if an opponent drags him into the later rounds, McGregor’s effectiveness starts to fade. Considering Poirier had already inflicted serious damage in the first, it’s very likely he would’ve pushed for a stoppage in the second round.

Still, could McGregor have pulled off something spectacular? Absolutely. We’ve seen him dig deep before! At UFC 202, he survived five grueling rounds to outpoint Nate Diaz in a razor-close rematch. Maybe he wouldn’t have gone the distance with Poirier, but a knockout in Round 2 or 3 definitely wasn’t out of the question. Chances are, he would’ve tightened up his takedown defense and looked for that trademark left hand—that could’ve ended Poirier’s night in a flash.

Without the leg break, those were the most realistic scenarios: Poirier finishing him early in round 2, or McGregor landing one of his vintage left-hand knockouts. If McGregor regained composure, it would still have been anyone’s fight. But let’s suppose McGregor did get his revenge for UFC 257—what would’ve been next? Safe to say, he would’ve pushed for a quick turnaround. And with the lightweight division stacked at the time, there were plenty of blockbuster fights waiting for him.  

‘The Notorious’ likely would’ve staged a quick comeback  

Conor McGregor definitely earned the fans’ ire for sitting out four years after breaking his leg. But it’s also important to recognize that he was one of the most active fighters during his glory days. After beating Nate Diaz at UFC 202 on August 20, 2016, ‘The Notorious One’ came back in November of the same year to face Eddie Alvarez for the lightweight belt. So, he would’ve actually made a quick turnaround—and some amazing fights were waiting for him as well.  

When Dustin Poirier fought McGregor at UFC 264, the 155 lbs division was in a very interesting place. Charles Oliveira became the champion after defeating Michael Chandler at UFC 262. And actually, ‘The Diamond’ had the option to face him for the title, but he chose the million-dollar trilogy instead. A decision UFC CEO Dana White appreciated at the time.

Poirier fought for the title at the end of the year after defeating McGregor, but the case wouldn’t have been the same if the Irish superstar had won the fight at UFC 264. Why?

Because the rematch between Conor and Dustin was based on the outcome of UFC 257, in which the former two-division champ had already suffered a loss. So, technically, he would’ve needed another fight to earn a shot at then-champion Charles Oliveira . McGregor was ranked 5th in 2021, so he would’ve climbed up the rankings. But, just because of the previous loss, he might have ended up fighting Justin Gaethje, who was ranked 2nd at the time.

If not, then the number 4-ranked Michael Chandler ironically would’ve been a good option for him as well. Then again, McGregor’s star power renders rankings useless. The Irishman showed up to UFC 264 wearing a mouthguard that supposedly had the colors of the Brazilian flag. Was he going to call out Charles Oliveira if he had won over Poirier? ‘Do Bronx’ was in the crowd and he knew he’d get the winner of the UFC 264 main event.

So, if McGregor hadn’t broken his leg, he would’ve given us another fight after the Poirier showdown! One that would’ve easily sold another million PPVs. Then, let’s again assume he wins that match, which again leads us to a question—was another title shot next? 

Was there a chance for a title shot?  

Well, if Conor McGregor hadn’t suffered that massive injury and actually gone through Poirier and Gaethje, both, then there’d be no question—he would’ve been next for the title shot! Yes, at some point, he would’ve faced Charles Oliveira, and that’s a dream matchup for any UFC fan. Remember how McGregor said he wanted to fight four times that year?

Although ‘Do Bronx’ would have been a nightmare matchup for him because of the Brazilian’s elite ground game, it still would’ve been electric to watch two of the sport’s most elite fighters finally clash inside the cage. Oliveira even called out McGregor after defeating Gaethje at UFC 274, and let’s be honest, there weren’t many UFC fans who would’ve minded seeing that fight. It would’ve carried the same kind of buzz McGregor had when he faced Jose Aldo back at UFC 194! 

And who knows? McGregor might have ended up catching Oliveira on the chin. After all, ‘Do Bronx’ chose to stand and trade with Dustin Poirier during most of the rounds at UFC 269, which shows he would’ve likely taken the risk to prove a point against McGregor as well. And that right there remains one of the biggest what-if scenarios that could’ve changed MMA history forever.

With that being said, what do you think the scenario would’ve been if Conor McGregor had stayed active and never broken his leg at UFC 264? Do you agree with the picture presented here—or do you have your own version in mind? Drop your thoughts in the comments below!