More than a month after their last event on December 20, PFL returns to show with its first event of the year—their third in Dubai. This weekend, inside Dubai’s Coca-Cola Arena, the US-based MMA league will deliver 13 stacked fights, but all eyes will be on the main event, where reigning PFL lightweight champion Usman Nurmagomedov faces tournament winner Alfie Davis, setting up a showdown that perfectly blends legacy and momentum. Speculation suggests this could be Nurmagomedov’s final fight in the promotion (though he has two more left on his contract), as few opponents remain at his level.

Late last year, in October, Nurmagomedov reclaimed the vacated PFL lightweight title by defeating Paul Hughes in a rematch following Bellator’s shutdown. Now, Alfie Davis (20-5) steps into the spotlight, and many view him as a serious threat to Nurmagomedov, possibly even dethroning Khabib Nurmagomedov’s cousin. But does he really have the tools to do that? Let’s break it down and analyze this high-stakes clash.

Usman Nurmagomedov and Alfie Davis stats comparison

Just like his legendary cousin Khabib Nurmagomedov, Usman Nurmagomedov follows the path his late uncle Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov laid down years ago, referring to him as Khabib’s true successor. Along this path, Nurmagomedov has built a perfect 20-0 record while holding the PFL lightweight belt at just 27—a remarkable achievement for his age.

Now, he prepares to face an opponent with six more years of professional experience, 33-year-old Alfie Davis. Standing at 5’11” with a 72-inch reach, the Russian phenom dominates in takedowns and grappling. Moreover, although he competes at 155 lbs, his walk-around weight of 173–175 lbs gives him additional power and strength.

Meanwhile, Usman’s opponent, Alfie Davis, has established himself as a prominent figure in the UK MMA scene. Without a famous family backing him, ‘The Axe Man’ carved his own path through hard work and determination, also receiving guidance from UFC lightweight Paddy Pimblett. He progressed from regional promotions like UCMMA to American and Polish circuits. Davis then impressed in Bellator with a 6-1 record, and after Bellator merged with the PFL, he continued to excel.

While he matches Usman Nurmagomedov in height, Alfie Davis has a slightly shorter reach of 70 inches, and his walk-around weight remains unreported. Although both fighters share similar physical attributes, they approach fights differently. Therefore, with these factors in mind, let’s break down how they match up.

Usman Nurmagomedov vs. Alfie Davis stylistic comparison

The upcoming PFL event goes beyond legacy; in fact, it tests fighters, especially Alfie Davis, who enters the cage without the same support system as Usman Nurmagomedov. For the Briton, the fight represents a chance to make his dream come true, whereas the Russian star aims to protect his family’s legacy. Meanwhile, the two fighters bring contrasting styles.

Alfie Davis uses orthodox striking but adds flared, unpredictable movements that create openings for knockouts. Consequently, his signature axe kicks earned him the nickname “The Axe Man.” Although he has no formal kickboxing background, Davis still delivers dynamic striking.

Unlike UFC stars such as Alex Pereira, whose moves can be predictable, Davis mixes conventional and unconventional patterns and prefers stand-up fighting. As a result, six of his wins came by knockout, while the rest came by submission, highlighting his versatility.

Similarly, everyone knows how “send 2–3 years in Dagestan” works when it comes to Usman Nurmagomedov. He grew up in Dagestan, first training under his uncle and later building on his cousin Khabib Nurmagomedov’s legacy. Consequently, this training shaped his grappling, giving him a wrestling style similar to Khabib, his teammate Islam Makhachev, and other Dagestani fighters.

In addition, Nurmagomedov excels in both sambo and wrestling and has developed a solid striking game under American kickboxing coach Javier Mendez. So far, he has won eight fights by knockout and six by submission, demonstrating a balanced ability to finish fights. Ultimately, Usman Nurmagomedov proves that his cousin’s influence does not limit him, making him one of the strongest contenders in the fight.

Final prediction for PFL Dubai: Nurmagomedov vs. Davis 

Alfie Davis enters this fight as a seasoned veteran, showcasing a lean, athletic frame typical of lightweight fighters. He combines strength and speed effectively, which makes him a formidable opponent. However, at nearly 35, age could challenge him against the hungry, younger Usman Nurmagomedov. From the opening bell, Nurmagomedov will test ‘The Axe Man’ with takedowns and grappling, while Davis will defend and look for openings to land strikes.

Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov brings elite fight IQ, just like his top-tier teammates in MMA. He doesn’t simply trade blows; he adapts mid-fight and executes game-changing strategies. For example, in his last bout against Paul Hughes, Nurmagomedov dismantled Hughes’ defense with crisp, explosive striking. This ability to control pace and adjust strategy turns his clash with Davis into both a tactical and striking contest.

If the fight moves into a more technical, cautious approach, Alfie Davis can rely on his experience and toughness. By using his ring savvy, he can manipulate Nurmagomedov into his game plan to gain the upper hand. Fans can recall UFC 311, when Merab Dvalishvili outclassed Nurmagomedov’s brother; therefore, ‘The Axe Man’ will need a similar performance to make history.

Overall, the matchup looks evenly poised. Davis brings resilience and experience, but Nurmagomedov holds the slight edge on paper. Ultimately, the fight will come down to who inflicts the most damage, though Nurmagomedov seems likely to claim a decision victory at PFL Dubai.