When Donald Trump first put forth the idea of a UFC card on the White House lawn, it seemed like a spectacle. America 250. An octagon on the South Lawn. Fighters walking out from the Oval Office. It felt more like a movie plot than a fight night.

Now, the numbers are catching up to the vision. What is the expected bill? Approximately $60 million—as per a Puck News report–and possibly climbing. For a promotion that rarely does anything little, this is different. Not because it is ambitious. Because it won’t make a dime in profit.

Is the UFC set to lose $60 million for nothing?

“We will not profit from the White House event independently,” Mark Shapiro said during a recent TKO financial call. “We will not be making money on America’s 250th anniversary.”

“This is an investment for the long term. This is about earned media. This is about sampling new fans, casual viewers, a spectacle and a stage that will ultimately expand our audience, our viewership, and our success on Paramount+.”

And the working figure for that endeavor? $60 million. However, Shapiro admits the figure could be higher. The objective is to offset around half of that with sponsorship packages and multi-year partnerships. Simply put, spend $60 million and hope to get $30 million back.

“It’s definitely not moving south—it could move north,” he added. “Bottom line is, it’s still a moving target.

“We are working to determine, on a parallel track, a package of inventory in and around the weekend of events that we can monetize primarily with corporate partners—B2B players, which will offset half of the spend.”

That’s a stark contrast to prior one-off spectacles. UFC’s Sphere event in Las Vegas in 2024 reportedly cost the promotion $20 million. This one is three times that. It also presents significant logistical challenges, ranging from replacing grass on the South Lawn to accommodating security restrictions and seating limits.

The gamble is obvious. Immediate revenue is not the goal. Visibility is. If Dana White‘s prediction of record-breaking viewership comes true, the event may pay off in ways that don’t show up on a single quarterly sheet.

Still, a UFC extravaganza that will not generate a profit is an unusual admission in a sport built on margins, especially when the UFC and Paramount+ are already in a tough battle with Netflix for the WBD merger.

Mark Shapiro opens up on Paramount-Netflix clash over WBD merger

The White House event may be a branding play, but the real chess match is taking place in boardrooms. With Paramount+ already locked into a massive seven-year UFC rights contract and Netflix rapidly growing its live sports footprint, the looming Warner Bros. Discovery merger battle adds an extra layer of drama. And TKO is standing right in the middle of it.

“I’m not going to get pulled into that trap,” Mark Shapiro said while answering who he was rooting for to win. “We’re just an observer just like everybody else.”

But he didn’t exactly stay silent. TKO, he continued, does “meaningful business” with both companies and has strong ties, “including hand-to-hand with David Ellison and Ted Sarandos.” Translation: Whoever wins, TKO intends to win too.

Shapiro reiterated that they have no control over the outcome and that decision is up to Warner Bros. shareholders. Nonetheless, he admitted they see pros for TKO, with either side winning.

It’s a diplomatic answer, but also a revealing one. In a media environment dominated by streaming giants, the UFC isn’t just staging $60 million spectacles. It is positioning itself to thrive regardless of which tech titan holds the keys.