UFC 268: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 2: Prediction and Analysis

Published 11/02/2021, 6:22 AM EDT


UFC 268 is one of the most anticipated events of the year. Two bitter rivals in Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington will headline the card on November 6. This fight will be a rematch of their epic clash at UFC 245.

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Usman has been a dominant champion and is maturing like a fine wine. Initially, a grappler, ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ has really improved his striking abilities and looks very comfortable on his feet. Since his win against ‘Chaos,’ Usman has defended his title three times and has looked dominant while doing so.

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Covington, on the other hand, has only fought once since his fight against Usman. His last fight was against former UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley. ‘Chaos’ won the fight via TKO in the fifth round and looked dominant while doing so.

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Many were surprised with Covington getting a rematch, having fought just once since the last fight. However, the lack of a concrete number 1 contender and the close nature of the UFC 245 match led to UFC making this fight.

UFC 268: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 2

The champion is the heavy favorite going into the fight. He has looked great in his fights and doesn’t look like he’s slowing down soon. With every fight, he seems to have improved some aspects of his game and is confident ahead of his fifth title defense.

The last time these two met, it was a slugfest. After having trouble with Covington’s striking in the first two rounds, Usman really found his range.

‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ ended up breaking his opponent’s jaw in the fight and forced the referee to stop proceedings in the fifth round. Given his UFC 245 showing and his 2021 bouts against Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal, he is confident that he will systematically dissect Covington.

In 2019, ‘Chaos’ showed his ability to stand and strike. He caught the champion with some clean strikes and put a lot of pressure on him in the first two rounds. However, Usman withstood the initial barrage.

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Keeping apart the recency bias, Usman just seems to have a bit more in the tank. It won’t be easy for the challenger to take the fight to the ground as well, as the champion has a 100 percent takedown defense.

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Usman’s striking accuracy is also significantly higher than his rival. The champion lands 54 percent of his significant strikes. In comparison, Covington’s striking percentage is only 38 percent.

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The fight is sure to be exciting, and the MMA community will surely tune in for this one. However, Usman has a slight advantage in all the departments, and Covington hasn’t been in the octagon enough since their last fight.

Prediction: Kamaru Usman to win by TKO in the fourth round

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Arunaditya Aima

250 articles

Arunaditya is a UFC writer at EssentiallySports. Having completed his Post Graduate Diploma in Multimedia Journalism from IIJNM, Arunaditya aspires to be an important voice in the world of MMA and interview the likes of Jon Jones, Conor McGregor, Amanda Nunes, and other such superstars of the sport. He has followed the sport for over a decade and is an ardent fan of Georges St-Pierre, who he believes is the greatest of all time.

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