Fans are rarely excited for a fight on the prelims card of a UFC event than most of the main card fights. But that is precisely the case for UFC 312 this Saturday. After all,  Aleksandre Topuria– featherweight champ Ilia Topuria’s older brother- will take on Colby Thicknesse, who will have his teammate Alexander Volkanovski in his corner, on the UFC 312 prelim card.

Both men will be making their UFC debut, and Thicknesse will be fighting in his native Australia, which adds another interesting dimension to the already-intriguing fight. In this article, we break down their matchup and make our prediction for the Topuria-Thicknesse fight.

Colby Thicknesse vs. Aleksandre Topuria record & stats comparison

Since Colby Thicknesse and Aleksandre Topuria haven’t fought in the UFC before, advanced stats about their average striking rate, accuracy, defense, and grappling aren’t available. But there are plenty of other data points to break down their matchup. For starters, Thicknesse is undefeated, having won all seven of his pro-MMA fights so far.

Granted he has only fought in smaller regional promotions so far, but his competition, Aleksandre has even fewer fights with a 5-1 record. On the other hand, all five of ‘El Conquistador’s victories have come via stoppages, while the Australian has gone to three decisions.

But Thicknesse has a size advantage, as he stands at 5’9″ with a 70″ reach, compared to Alexandre who stands at 5’7″ and has a wingspan of 68″ inches. Stylistically, Thicknesse is a relentless and aggressive grappler who likes to take down his opponents early and often. Topuria himself is quite proficient on the ground, with two of his victories coming via submission.

In addition, the Georgia native has a dangerous striking game, which has been enough to overwhelm and knock out three opponents in the first round. Now let us discuss how we see the fight going.

Thicknesse vs. Topuria UFC 312 prediction

The fight, in essence, will be between Colby Thicknesse’s smothering and dynamic grappling and Topuria’s sharp striking and technical precision. And we think that ‘El Conquistador’ has the tools to win the fight via a stoppage. However, a two-year layoff since his last fight would certainly play a part in the bout.

But ‘El Conquistador’ has been working with championship-level talent like Ilia and 135lbs kingpin Merab Dvalishvili in his camp, which is probably his biggest advantage over the Aussie. Another notable disadvantage for Thicknesse is that he took the fight on just fourteen days’ notice and hasn’t had a chance to prepare properly for Aleksandre.

Although Thicknesse’s grappling has been quite effective, it has only been tested against regional-level fighters with losing records. Suppose Aleksandre can bear the initial brunt of the Aussie’s wrestling, which we think he does. In that case, the Georgia native has the explosiveness and killer instinct to stop Thicknesse, probably in the third round. What do you think about our prediction for the Topuria-Thicknesse fight?