Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier 3 headlines UFC 318 on July 19, 2025, at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. And as Chandler Bing would say, “Could the stakes BE any higher?” Holloway is defending his symbolic BMF title, whereas Poirier is fighting for the final time in his illustrious career.

It’s a homecoming and a departure all at once, with a setting as dramatic as the fighters’ shared history. This will be their trilogy bout. Poirier has won the first two, but can ‘The Diamond’ shine one more time in front of his Louisiana fans, or will ‘Blessed’ finally get one back and solidify his status as the UFC’s baddest? Let’s break it down: stats first, then the predictions.

Holloway vs. Poirier height, weight, reach & other stats

Dustin Poirier enters UFC 318 as one of the most dangerous lightweights in the modern era. At 5’9″ (175 cm), he has a 72-inch (183 cm) reach and weighs 155 pounds. His southpaw stance and gritty striking technique have helped him build a professional record of 30-9, with 16 knockouts and 7 submissions.

But what makes him really lethal is the fact that ‘The Diamond’ averages 5.49 significant strikes per minute at a 50% accuracy rate. And with an iron chin, he takes 4.3 blows per minute and defends 53% of what comes at him. However, he falls short when it comes to his grappling skills. The hometown hero averages 1.36 takedowns every 15 minutes with 36% accuracy and a 63% defense rate.

Max Holloway, on the other hand, is 5’11” (180 cm) tall, with a somewhat shorter reach of 69 inches (175 cm), and weighs 155 pounds. ‘Blessed’ is well-known for his crazy speed and striking volume, and they have helped him earn a record of 26-8, with 12 knockouts and two submissions.

The 33-year-old is a machine, averaging 7.25 major strikes per minute with 47% accuracy. While he takes 4.7 strikes per minute, he defends at 59%, demonstrating his toughness and quick movement. However, wrestling isn’t his preferred weapon.

He only averages 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a 33% success rate—but his 84% takedown defense makes him exceedingly difficult to control on the mat. Holloway has the statistical advantage in volume and defense, whilst Poirier offers greater power and grappling variation. So, one thing is for sure: their styles will bring the perfect storm to the Octagon. But who’ll emerge victorious?

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier prediction: Who wins at UFC 318?

The history between the two surely runs deep. Poirier submitted Holloway in 2012, in the ‘Blessed’ fighter’s UFC debut. Seven years later, they faced off again in a five-round battle for the interim lightweight title. Poirier won that fight by unanimous decision, using better wrestling and hitting heavier strikes against Holloway’s unrelenting pace.

Now, in 2025, with the BMF title on the line, Holloway will look to get over his first KO loss against Ilia Topuria. And it will be very crucial, since that loss may have chipped away at the mythical granite chin Holloway once possessed. Meanwhile, Poirier has experienced his share of ups and downs.

He lost to Justin Gaethje and Islam Makhachev but knocked out Benoit Saint Denis in between. His submission loss to Makhachev will not affect him here because Holloway does not threaten with submissions. What will be important is the crowd in New Orleans, Poirier’s grit, and the emotion of a final walk to the Octagon.

Call it poetic. Call it classic. But we believe ‘The Diamond’ goes for his iconic guillotine choke and ends his career with a bang. He’s 2-0 against Holloway, fighting at home, and has every reason to leave everything in the cage. So, we believe it will be an ideal exit for a fan-favorite fighter.