At UFC 321, Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern are all geared up to go toe-to-toe for the vacant women’s strawweight title. Following Zhang Weili‘s move to flyweight, the division’s top grapplers are now facing off, and the tension is palpable. Dern comes in with the clear mental advantage, having won their first fight in 2020, but ‘Carcara’ enters on a five-fight winning streak. So, who is most likely to win this fierce battle between the duo? And how do these two fighters compare head-to-head in the numbers? Let’s dive into their stats to find out!

Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern stats comparison

Physically, the fighters are closely matched. Virna Jandiroba is 5’3″ with a 64-inch reach, while Mackenzie Dern is slightly taller at 5’4″ but has a 63-inch reach. Both compete in the 115-pound strawweight division and fight from an orthodox stance, yet their fighting styles and offensive output differ significantly.

Jandiroba is a submission specialist, with 1.97 significant strikes per minute at 38% accuracy and 1.8 submission attempts every 15 minutes. She also showed strong takedown abilities, landing 2.37 every 15 minutes with 33% accuracy, while maintaining excellent defensive numbers of 57% strike defense and 2.55 significant strikes per minute. Her 22-3 professional record reveals a meticulous grappler capable of emphatically winning fights when she brings opponents to the mat.

Dern, while known for her elite BJJ, has a slightly higher striking volume (3.31 significant strikes per minute and 40% accuracy), reflecting her emphasis on creating grappling opportunities rather than high-volume striking. Her takedown rate is lower, at 0.89 per 15 minutes with 17% accuracy, indicating that her game revolves around controlling opponents on the ground after she closes the distance.

The 32-year-old absorbs more significant strikes than Jandiroba (3.9 per minute) and defends 52% of incoming strikes, exposing possible weaknesses in stand-up clashes. Her 15-5 record illustrates her ability to compete at a high level, especially when implementing her grappling dominance.

The contrast is clear: Virna Jandiroba’s grappling is supported by modest striking improvements, whereas Dern depends mainly on BJJ to control the fight’s course. Both fighters are submission threats, but Jandiroba’s slightly greater takedown rate and defensive efficiency suggest she may have an advantage in dictating positional control.

Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern stylistic comparison

Jandiroba excels in close-quarters grappling, combining positional control with submission attacks and integrating more striking than in previous years. Her patience and ability to combine takedowns and submissions make her deadly against opponents who create gaps on the mat. ‘Carcara’ also shows increased defensive awareness, which reduces vulnerability during exchanges and counterattacks.

Dern, on the other hand, actively uses her movement and timing to create submission opportunities. Her BJJ background allows her to threaten from a variety of positions, and her striking is mostly a preparation for her ground game. While she is quick on her feet, her takedown attempts are infrequent, suggesting a reliance on Jandiroba to engage first. UFC 321 will likely pivot on whether the Brazilian can force grappling exchanges early or if Mackenzie Dern can capitalize on counter opportunities to implement her BJJ effectively.

Final prediction for UFC 321

The grappling exchanges will primarily determine the outcome of this fight. If Jandiroba can implement her takedown-heavy, submission-oriented strategy early on, she has a good chance of finishing in the second or third round. Her better striking and defensive awareness may prevent the American from controlling the pace, giving her a decisive advantage.

In contrast, if Mackenzie Dern effectively uses her movement, timing, and exceptional submission skills, she may be able to neutralize Jandiroba’s offense and look for opportunities to reclaim the upper hand, potentially winning by decision or submission. However, the momentum from Jandiroba’s five-fight winning streak and her ability to control grappling exchanges make Virna Jandiroba’s submission in Round 2 the most likely outcome, crowning her as the new strawweight champion.