When precision meets power, fireworks are inevitable—and that’s what UFC 322 promises when Leon Edwards faces Carlos Prates on November 15, 2025. Edwards, Birmingham’s cool and skilled tactician, returns to prove his place among the welterweight elite. Across the Octagon from him stands Prates, aka ‘The Nightmare’ from Brazil, who has a vicious knockout streak that has made him one of the division’s most fearsome names.

This is a collision of philosophies, not just rankings. The 34-year-old Edwards thrives on patience and structure, with a focus on timing and defensive skills. On the other hand, Prates lives in chaos, pushing ahead and throwing with bad intentions every time. Both men weigh 170 pounds, but one desires control and the other seeks destruction. So, let’s see how their numbers line up.

UFC 322 Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates: Stats comparison

They are physically close, yet their use of tools differs. Leon Edwards measures 6’2″ with a 74-inch reach and has a 22-5-0 record, with 7 knockouts and 3 submissions. Fighting for Renegade MMA, ‘Rocky’ is a measured southpaw who dominates range with kicks and quick counters.

Carlos Prates from Fighting Nerds stands 6’1″ and has a longer 78-inch reach. His 21-7-0 record includes 16 knockouts and 3 submissions, suggesting a strong finishing instinct. The Brazilian quickly shifts stances, keeping opponents guessing while chasing them down with some really thunderous strikes.

Form favors ‘The Nightmare’ for sure. Since 2024, he has fought six times and won five, resulting in an 83% success rate. His knockouts of Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, and Li Jingliang cemented him as a serious threat in the top 15. His only loss was by decision to Ian Machado Garry. Meanwhile, ‘Rocky’ has fought five bouts since 2022, winning three. Even though he defeated Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman, his losses to Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady derailed his momentum. But statistically, Leon Edwards’ striking is more balanced.

From what the UFC’s numbers tell us, on average, ‘Rocky’ distributes his strikes 56% to the head, 24% to the body, and 20% to the legs. He does his best work from distance, with 76% significant strikes coming while on the feet, 14% in the clinch, and 11% on the ground. He boasts 54% striking accuracy and 64% takedown defense, with a 36% takedown accuracy.

In comparison, Prates throws 55% to the head, 23% to the body, and 22% to the legs. Now here comes the difference maker. Prates does 94% of his striking while standing. Nearly 0% in the clinch and 6% on the ground. He matches Edwards with 54% striking accuracy, has a 100% takedown accuracy (landed the only one he ever attempted), and has a staggering 84% takedown defense.

Edwards has an average fight time of 17 minutes and change. Prates has kept it under 10 minutes, 9:08 to be exact. Where does that leave us on our expectations for fight night?

The stylistic comparison between the two UFC welterweights

Leon Edwards is deliberate, assessing his opponent’s rhythm and attacking with precision. His composure helped him dethrone Kamaru Usman, but patience may become passive if the pressure never stops coming.

After all, Carlos Prates is built for chaos. He thrives on intensity and unpredictability, changing stances mid-combination to gain unique angles. His strength is obvious, but his defense isn’t perfect, providing room for a counter or takedown. Against a technician like ‘Rocky,’ one momentary lapse could change everything.

Expect a cautious start. Edwards will circle Carlos Prates, using punches and body kicks to keep him in range. ‘The Nightmare’ will move forward, hoping to crash the pocket and land quickly. If Leon Edwards can handle the initial surge, his experience should start to shine. The Briton will look to clinch, control against the fence, and chip away with elbows and knees

Volume will be key for the former champion. That’s the blueprint Ian Garry used against Prates. He threw nearly double the amount of significant strikes as Prates, with a 52% success rate. 95% of those came from distance. He outstruck Prates in all five rounds, and still wound up almost getting finished towards the end of the fight. Prates lands 3.82 sig. strikes as per the UFC’s numbers, and absorbs 4.8. Edwards throws 2.62 and absorbs 2.42. Clearly, Prates is the risk taker, willing to eat one to land a bigger one. That will have to change in New York, if ‘Rocky’ hopes to win.

For Prates, it’s all about speed and pressure. He can’t give Edwards time to settle into a rhythm. If he hesitates, he will find himself defending takedowns, going for endless underhooks in the clinch, and losing time on the scoreboard. The objective will be to maintain pressure while avoiding grappling exchanges, which is easier said than done against someone as composed as ‘Rocky.’

Edwards and Prates: final prediction for UFC 322

Leon Edwards has gone toe-to-toe with world champions, overcome adversity, and proven his ability to adapt mid-fight. Carlos Prates, on the other hand, represents the next wave: younger, hungrier, and armed with knockout power that can end a bout in an instant.

The first round will be ‘The Nightmare’s’ finest opportunity. His explosiveness and reach might knock ‘Rocky’ out cold. However, if Edwards survives the explosion, he is likely to take control. His mastery of the clinch, body kicks, and ground positioning can sap the Brazilian’s strength. When exhaustion sets in, Leon Edwards’ expertise and combat IQ will carry him home.

The threat of ‘The Nightmare’ is constant, but moments of chaos are insufficient against a strategist like Edwards. The Brit’s ability to control range, defend takedowns, and combine striking and grappling provides him more opportunities to win. Expect him to frustrate the Brazilian in round two, slow down the tempo, and outthink him as the fight unfolds.

Final prediction: Leon Edwards wins at UFC 322 via unanimous decision. ‘The Nightmare’s’ power will threaten early, but ‘Rocky’s’ calmness, defense, and superior control should win the night. It’s a battle between raw aggression and precise calculation, and this time, calculation should win.