UFC 323 promises an action-packed night from start to finish. And one matchup drawing major attention is the light heavyweight clash between Jan Blachowicz and Bogdan Guskov. The two are set to collide at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on the undercard of Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2. This fight pairs a seasoned former UFC champion against a surging knockout artist riding serious momentum.

For Blachowicz, it’s a crucial moment—a chance to halt his two-fight skid and claw his way back into title contention. For Guskov, it’s an opportunity to secure his place among the division’s elite and prove he belongs in the top 10 with a definitive statement win. So, in a matchup where experience meets explosive power, the question remains: who walks away victorious?

Jan Blachowicz and Bogdan Guskov stats comparison

The Polish veteran enters the matchup with a record of 29-11-1 (12-8-1 in UFC). At 42 years old, Jan Blachowicz is nearly ten years older than Guskov, though they stand at a near-identical at around 6’2″ (188 cm). The Berkut WCA Fight Team member typically walks around at 215–220 lbs and has a 78″ (198cm) reach. He is ranked No. 5 in the division.

Bogdan Guskov, meanwhile, carries a record of 18-3 (4-1 UFC). At 33, he has a clear age advantage, along with a marginal one-inch height edge, though it’s hardly a deciding factor. His walk-around weight sits at 210–215 lbs, but he trails in reach at 76″ (193 cm). Guskov currently holds the No. 11 spot and is eager to climb higher.

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Experience favors Jan Blachowicz, who boasts 18 career finishes, but age is catching up. He’s dropped three of his last five, with one ending in a draw, and hasn’t scored a knockout since September 2020. Bogdan Guskov, by contrast, is surging—four wins in his last five, all four by stoppages.

Activity is also on Guskov’s side. The Uzbek has fought twice already in 2025, repeating his busy schedule from last year. Blachowicz, however, has yet to shake off ring rust—he fought only once this year (a loss) and sat out all of 2024. Statistically, Blachowicz lands 3.4 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy, absorbing 3.03 per minute, with a 52% striking defense.

He averages 1.03 takedowns per 15 minutes and has 69% takedown defense, with his fights averaging 13:11. Guskov, meanwhile, lands 4.17 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy, absorbing 3.30, while maintaining 45% striking defense. He is less committed to wrestling, with 50% takedown defense, and his fights average a longer 15:00.

Despite having defeated the likes of Israel Adesanya, Dominick Reyes, and other big names in his resume, age is not on his side. On the other hand, Guskov is younger, faster, and confident thanks to his four-fight winning streak. However, can their fighting styles make a difference? 

Jan Blachowicz and Bogdan Guskov stylistic comparison

The fight feels like a collision of two different timelines in the light heavyweight division. Guskov represents the modern archetype: explosive, aggressive, and built to overwhelm opponents before they can settle into the fight. His power, pressure, and knack for early finishes make him a genuine threat to anyone ranked above him—and Blachowicz will feel that danger from the opening bell.

If it weren’t for the Polish fighter’s recent decline, the fight would have been a trap for Guskov because Jan has spent years picking apart wild, forward-moving attackers with range management, punishing counters, and underrated grappling. However, Blachowicz has proven he is not the fighter he used to be. This doesn’t mean the Polish fighter wouldn’t be a challenge for ‘Czarevitch,’ especially since he was submitted in the first round on his debut. 

If Jan can survive the first round, he could take Guskov into deeper waters. And Guskov’s untested gas tank and Jan’s durability, having been just knocked out once, could flip the fight onto its head. Still, Guskov’s chances seem higher. Throughout the fight, he will be just one clear shot, one chaotic exchange, one surge of pressure away from securing a dramatic win. 

Final prediction for UFC 323

On the surface, it might seem like Bogdan Guskov brings only aggression and striking to the table. But he also carries significant momentum—enough to potentially offset the grappling advantage Jan Blachowicz brings. With his high first-round finishing rate, Guskov will almost certainly push for an early stoppage. If the fight drags into the later rounds, though, the odds begin to tilt toward Jan, whose experience and endurance become major factors.

Even so, this matchup feels razor-close. Blachowicz’s durability may keep him from getting knocked out, but Guskov’s pressure and striking output could allow him to take over the exchanges and edge out a win. In the end, Guskov seems slightly better positioned to emerge victorious. Do you agree? Drop your predictions below.