UFC returns to our screens after six weeks with a banger of a main card. The promotion’s first event with Paramount + sees the interim lightweight title up for grabs, with Justin Gaethje set to fight Paddy Pimblett. 

Two former champions, Rose Namajunas and Sean O’Malley, feature along with grizzled veteran Derrick Lewis and heavy-hitters like Waldo Cortes-Accosta and Jean Silva on the card as well.

The promotion seems to have favored striking-first profiles to keep things explosive on their debut event of the year, and of the new broadcast deal. Between Justin Gaethje, Sean O’Malley, Derrick Lewis, and Jean Silva, it is unlikely that some or most of these main card bouts go the distance. But that is also the reason why it’s not easy to predict who will take home the win this weekend in this violent game of inches.

Our team at EssentiallySports got down to make our picks, and we had differing opinions in all but one bout. 

UFC 324 Event Info

Start Time: 9 PM ET/6 PM PT

Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Where to Watch: Paramount+

Commentators: Joe Rogan, Jon Anik, Daniel Cormier

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Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett (Interim Lightweight Title bout)

Betting Odds: Gaethje (+190), Pimblett (-230)

Win/Loss last five: Gaethje (WLWWL); Pimblett (WWWWW)

Reubyn Coutinho: This is quite the banger of a main event, but that’s about it. Arman Tsarukyan should be in this fight. Paddy’s not been very active, with just two fights since beating Tony Ferguson. Gaethje has also taken one fight in each of the last two years, but these have come against elite names in barn burners.

Pimblett hasn’t faced this kind of artillery yet, and it will catch up in round 2. The reach advantage won’t help much either. Trust Gaethje to comfortably absorb the Brit’s power. He did so against Holloway for 24:59 and against Poirier, too. Winner: Gaethje by TKO (Round 2). 

Yeswanth Praveen: Justin Gaethje wins this one on paper, but he was supposed to beat Max Holloway, too, on paper. Gaethje has the clear power advantage. Even at 37, he can hang in there with the younger guys, as seen in the Rafael Fiziev rematch. The Kryptonite is, and has always been, grappling. 

Pimblett waits out Gaethje, finds his opening, gets him to the mat, and submits him in the third round or after. However, expect Gaethje to throw everything and the kitchen sink from the get-go. Unless he blitzes Pimblett inside the first two, Pimblett is submitting him in the third or fourth round. Winner: Pimblett by submission. (Round 3)

P.S. The title fight age curse for 35+ YO fighters for welterweight and below favors Paddy. Volk is the only one who broke it when he won the title back last year. 

Faizan Mirza: The matchup fundamentally favors Gaethje’s elite violence, pressure, and proven durability against Pimblett’s defensive liabilities and untested striking under fire. Gaethje’s greatest weapons—calf kicks, short hooks, and relentless forward momentum—directly exploit Pimblett’s upright stance and loose guard. Winner: Gaethje by knockout (round 3) 

Sourabh Singh: Gaethje came against Poirier with a trap setup that allowed a head kick. He walked to the tunes of Dirty Heads’ ‘Celebrity’ against Holloway and instead allowed Max an eternal celebrity status. Then, he dodged those deadly Fiziev uppercuts and won. But Pimblett is none of those. He will use more ground game than Gaethje would like. And to me, it will be a done deal by R4. Winner: Pimblett by submission (Round 4) 

Biplob Chakraborty: Paddy is getting serious backing to win the UFC 324 headliner because of his grappling edge and his last performance against Michael Chandler. And while that argument makes sense, I still believe Justin Gaethje has enough defense to stuff Paddy’s takedown attempts and use his counterstriking to find the Scouser’s chin, which he leaves up in the air far too often. Winner: Gaethje by knockout (Round 4) 

Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong (Bantamweight bout)

Betting Odds: O’Malley (-205), Song (+170)

Win/Loss last five: O’Malley (LLWWW); Yadong (WLWWL)

Coutinho: O’Malley felt he was falling badly. Now he’s bumped up to co-main and will want to make a statement. Can he? The tape’s all in his favor in this one, with O’Malley having a three-inch height and a massive five-inch reach advantage. He can stay out of range and keep punishing Yadong for as long as he wants. I see him finishing this. Winner: Sean O’Malley by TKO (Round 1)

Praveen: This will be a fun one. I’m going with O’Malley getting a unanimous decision win. He gets all three rounds or two of three at worst. The height and range difference will massively favor him. He can counterstrike and go for a finish if Yadong marches forward recklessly, or stay outside and play the point-striking game. After the two Merab losses, his grappling should also be improved to hold his own against Yadong. Winner: Sean O’Malley by Unanimous Decision

Mirza: O’Malley will defeat Song Yadong by knockout because his elite distance management, feints, and sniper-like precision will consistently draw Song into overextensions that leave him vulnerable down the center. Winner: Sean O’Malley by KO (Round 3) 

Singh: O’Malley has long downplayed his potential by con to the Dvalishvili supremacy. But against a new competition in Song, who failed to contain Petr Yan in a long battle, O’Malley is going to find his KO punch power back. True, Yadong will bring the same Dvalishvili style to the Octagon, but Sugar will have enough experience to keep the fight on the feet and take home a decision victory. Winner: Sean O’Malley by Decision 

Chakraborty: That is definitely a real chance for Yadong to score the biggest win of his career, and for O’Malley to pull off a strong comeback. But I believe ‘Suga’ has far more power and precision to light up his opponent from range. Yadong can still find success in the pocket and by mixing in his takedowns. Still, the former champ simply has a craftier and sharper toolbox, and he has faced the better competition. Winner: Sean O’Malley by TKO

Waldo Cortes- Acosta vs Derrick Lewis (Heavyweight bout)

Betting Odds: Cortes-Acosta (-325), Lewis (+260)

Win/Loss last five:  Cortes-Acosta (WWLWW); Lewis (WWLWL)

Coutinho: Cortes-Accosta is younger, hungrier, and on an insane finish streak. He’s had two first-round finishes since November and will make it three. Lewis is an animal, but age will catch up. He will have his moments, but it’ll have to be early. Winner: Cortes-Acosta by TKO (Round 1)

Praveen: Lewis is fun to watch and has heavy hands, but Cortes-Acosta is the better fighter. He has only lost via decision, and that too just twice, in MMA. Winner: Cortes-Acosta by KO (Round 1)

Mirza: Cortes-Acosta will outwork Lewis with sustained volume, sharper boxing fundamentals, and disciplined pressure that forces Lewis into prolonged exchanges rather than single explosive moments. Winner: Lewis by KO (Round 1).

Singh: No disrespect to Cortes-Acosta, but Lewis is coming for a historical milestone. The KO king will expand his record because he will absorb Cortes’ pace and body kicks while needing just one opening to land a goodnight punch. I wouldn’t be surprised with a R2 victory for the American, even if the scorecard till then will be putting Cortes higher. Winner: Lewis by TKO (Round 2).

Chakraborty: The momentum is definitely with Waldo Cortes-Acosta going into this fight. Winning four out of five bouts last year was a spectacular run. However, I think the Dominican is turning around a little too quickly against a very dangerous and experienced opponent. Lewis is more rested, looks in great shape, and I see him adding his 17th UFC knockout by flatlining Cortes-Acosta. Winner: Lewis by KO (Round 1)

Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas (Women’s flyweight bout)

Betting Odds: Silva (-410), Namajunas (+320)

Win/Loss last five:  Silva (WWWWW); Namajunas (WLWWL)

Coutinho: This will be a decision either way, at least based on their last four. Rose Namajunas has not finished a fight at 125. I don’t see that changing here, with Natalia Silva being the younger, hungrier, and natural flyweight. Winner: Silva by decision 

Praveen: Rose is 3-2 at strawweight, winning and losing via unanimous decision. The two losses were to younger and more established flyweights. Expect the pattern to continue here. Natalia Silva has a 13-fight winning momentum on her side. She takes this one on the cards. Winner: Silva by decision

Mirza: The fight hinges on whether Silva can impose her speed, volume, and footwork before Namajunas establishes her timing and composure. Winner: Silva by decision.

Singh: Namajunas has had her great days, but I dare to say they’re past her prime. Natalia Silva brings a pace and a leg game that never grows tired. It will be fun to watch the technical command and discipline from Rose to tackle the Brazilian, but my bets won’t change even as judges have traditionally favored Namajunas’ finesse. Winner: Silva by decision. 

Chakraborty: Namajunas has the championship experience and has fought some of the greatest names in the game. But Natalia Silva currently owns one of the best striking arsenals in the women’s flyweight division. In her last fight, the Brazilian, who is also undefeated in the UFC, outlanded ex-champ Alexa Grasso. This time, I’m confident that Silva is going to add another former champion’s name to her resume with a unanimous decision win. Winner: Silva by decision.

Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva (Featherweight bout)

Betting Odds: Allen (+225), Silva (-280)

Win/Loss last five:  Allen (WLLWW); Silva (LWWWW)

Coutinho: Arnold Allen’s coming off a major layoff, but the way Jean Silva lost his previous fight…man it’s tough to return from that type of a finish. Winner: Allen by decision. 

Praveen: Betting on the underdog to take this one. Allen needs to play his game and not get drawn into Silva’s. He could very well walk away with a clear decision win. Winner: Allen by decision. 

Mirza: Jean Silva brings explosive power, forward pressure, and a kill-or-be-killed style that can overwhelm Allen early. I predict a Round 2 finish for the Fighting Nerd. Winner: Jean Silva by TKO

Singh: I keep a bias for Silva here, I won’t deny. But he is someone who can take a hundred significant strikes and yet close the fight without getting KO’d. This is enough for me to support the Nerd who needs to leave behind that Lopes night. Winner: Silva by decision.

Chakraborty: Allen vs Silva is a tricky one. The Brit brings a dynamic style, mixing his ground game with sharp striking. Still, there’s one factor clearly working in the Brazilian’s favor, and that is Silva’s tremendous power. I believe that over three rounds, ‘Lord’ will eventually find his opponent’s chin, leading to a vicious knockout in the 3rd. Winner: Jean Silva by KO