When you think of pure, high-speed chaos in the UFC, flyweights usually spring to mind: Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales is building up to be just that. These two are made for scrambles, reversals, and fast-paced exchanges that can turn on a dime. And now, they’ll face off on November 8, 2025, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, both hoping to gain traction in a division where one bad night could erase months of progress.

For Matt Schnell, this fight seems like an opportunity to prove that his fire is still burning as brightly as ever. For Joseph Morales, it’s an opportunity for him to show that he belongs among the best young fighters at 125 pounds. Schnell enjoys chaos on the feet, while Morales prefers control on the mat, and a winner will emerge somewhere between those two extremes. But how do they truly measure up in numbers? Let’s have a look.

Matt Schnell and Joseph Morales stats comparison

Physically, Matt Schnell is the taller man, standing 5’8″ with a reach of 70 inches. His 17-9 record tells the tale of a fighter who lived and died by his willingness to go to war. And ‘Danger’ surely proves it through the volume of his Schnell strikes: a brutal 4.13 per minute. However, his aggression comes at a cost, as he eats slightly over 4.1 in return.

The 35-year-old’s accuracy is about 40%, and his defense is around 55%, which is acceptable but not fantastic for someone who frequently stands in the pocket. When it comes to grappling, Matt Schnell’s numbers dip a bit. He barely lands 0.49 takedowns every 15 minutes, but his 1.2 submission attempts suggest that he remains dangerous after the fight reaches the mat. The problem? His 43% takedown defense often leaves him trapped underneath better wrestlers.

Joseph Morales, on the other hand, is slightly shorter at 5’6″ with a 69-inch reach, but he compensates for it with balance and patience. His striking rate is much lower, just 2.02 significant strikes per minute, but he takes relatively little damage, absorbing only 2.11. That efficiency reveals a lot about his approach: calm, meticulous, and focused on openings rather than output.

His 57% striking defense is slightly better than Matt Schnell’s, but his true strength is grappling. ‘Bopo’ averages 1.23 takedowns every 15 minutes and nearly three submission attempts per bout, which is an outstanding pace in this division. So, the numbers reveal a simple truth: Schnell brings volume and grit, whereas Joseph Morales brings control and efficiency. One thrives on rapid exchanges, while the other prefers stillness and precision.

The stylistic comparison between the two UFC flyweights

This fight feels like a tug-of-war between chaos and composure. Matt Schnell’s best moments come when things become messy. He’s explosive, swift, and always eager to outperform opponents. The downside? ‘Danger’ occasionally gets carried away, taking too many risks and putting his chin out there. So, one can say he surely loves living up to his moniker.

On the other hand, Joseph Morales represents the extreme opposite. He does not rush, panic, or waste energy. He examines his opponent, times his entry, and gradually shifts the fight to match his style: one in which he controls the pace and threatens submission. His ground game is really good, and if he can get Schnell on his back, the difference in composure will be obvious.

Expect ‘Danger’ to come out with guns blazing, throwing flurries and combinations to challenge Morales’ defense. The opening round will be the most ideal for him: fast hands, plenty of energy, and perhaps a scare or two for ‘Bopo.’ However, as the adrenaline wears off, Joseph Morales’ methodical style can take over. He’ll clinch, drag things to the ground, and put Matt Schnell in uncomfortable spots where his energy and focus start to slip.

Schnell and Morales: final prediction for UFC Vegas 111

This is one of those fights where heart meets calculation. Matt Schnell has fought more wars, but Morales appears to be the fresher, sharper fighter right now. ‘Danger’ has unrivaled expertise, but experience does not necessarily outweigh timing and control, which ‘Bopo’ possesses in abundance. Schnell will most likely start strong, pressing forward and attempting to overwhelm Morales with speed.

But, if Morales survives the initial storm, as history suggests he will, the 31-year-old will begin to find his groove. Once he closes the gap, it’s his world. Expect Morales to gradually grind Schnell down, wear him down, and seek a submission once fatigue sets in. If you’re looking for a safe bet, this isn’t it; both guys are capable of defeating the other. But, stylistically, Joseph Morales seems to be designed for this type of fight.

He can take damage, stay patient, and capitalize when Schnell overextends. Final Prediction: Joseph Morales wins by submission in Round 3. Matt Schnell will make things entertaining, but Morales’ calm under pressure and skilled grappling should be the difference. It’s the kind of bout that reminds fans why the flyweight division is pure anarchy, yet sometimes, composure triumphs over chaos in the end.