This weekend, Luiz Hernandez vs. Sedriques Dumas at UFC Vegas 121 grabbed attention not only for the physical clash but for their unusual Cop vs. Convicted Felon storyline. Hernandez is a cop with the Miami-Dade Sheriff’s Office, while Dumas is a convicted felon arrested 14 times on various felony charges. Now, the fight is official, but with a massive weight discrepancy.

The official weigh-ins for the Apex event just concluded, with all 24 fighters across 12 bouts successfully hitting the scale. Accordingly, Hernandez weighed in at 204 pounds, while his opponent came in at 197 pounds, resulting in a massive 7-pound difference for their light-heavyweight bout.

For those who may not know, Hernandez took the fight on just two days’ notice after the UFC was forced to pull Dumas’ original opponent, Mickey Gall, from their scheduled middleweight bout. The 34-year-old veteran recently broke the news to his audience through an Instagram post. As a result, the promotion subsequently moved Hernandez vs. Dumas to the 205-lb weight division to avoid any potential weight misses.

Both UFC Vegas 121 fighters would be moving up in weight for the first time. So far, Hernandez and Dumas have competed in the middleweight division throughout their professional MMA careers. But the UFC previously has pushed fighters up to a bigger weight division when circumstances demanded it.

Previously, the UFC moved 2021 Fight Night event between Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa from middleweight to light heavyweight after the Brazilian ran into trouble making 185 lbs. However, the weight discrepancy was noticeably slight, with both fighters weighing in at 204 lbs and 204.5 lbs, respectively.

In most cases, a fighter missing weight forces the UFC to hold the fight in a bigger weight division.

For example, Simon Oliveira missed the bantamweight non-title fight limit of 136 lbs by a staggering 8 pounds, weighing in at 144 pounds against Luan Lacerda, who perfectly made weight at UFC Rio last year. The promotion fined Oliveira 50% and awarded a portion to his opponent, but ultimately proceeded with the fight despite such a wide weight difference.

However, the division where such discrepancies most commonly happen is heavyweight. Fighters usually come out with almost 10 to 20 lbs weight differences. Another fitting example is Josh Hokit, who weighed 233 pounds against a 261-pound Curtis Blaydes for their UFC 327 bout in Miami.

But for the 205 or 185 lbs divisions where Dumas and Hernandez compete, that gap is definitely massive, and fighters in that division don’t see such gaps often like their heavyweight counterparts.

Still, with the fight now official and the weight difference locked in, the question remains: who’s going to have the advantage?

Who’s going to win this weekend’s Cop vs. Felon UFC fight?  

At present, the Miami-based police officer is a mild favorite to defeat the convicted felon at UFC Vegas 121. Hernandez is a fresh addition to the UFC, having recently earned his contract after beating Hugo Guillon on Dana White’s Contender Series. Dumas, on the other hand, has spent considerably more time in the cage, having fought in the UFC since 2023. 

Granted, having an advantage in weight alone doesn’t guarantee a win. But for a pressure grappler like Luiz Hernandez, the added 7 lbs could be a blessing in disguise against a fighter like Dumas, who isn’t known for his ground game.   

Hernandez has already submitted 5 of his opponents, the latest coming in his DWCS victory. That speaks to the Miami sheriff’s credentials on the ground, while Dumas has only 2 wins and 3 losses by submission, which screams inefficiency.

The extra weight would give the 30-year-old more strength to force grappling exchanges. In that case, it could be tough for Dumas to escape positions with his opponent constantly imposing heavy top pressure. In fact, there are plenty of fights where grappling-based fighters have managed to exploit a weight discrepancy.

Mackenzie Dern is one such example. The Brazilian missed the strawweight (116 lbs) non-title fight limit by 7 pounds against Amanda Cooper ahead of their UFC 224 bout in 2018. She eventually turned the weight to her advantage, dropping Cooper with a right hand, and then mauling her from top position before securing a rear-naked choke submission in the first round.

Another notable instance is when Ray Borg missed the flyweight non-title limit by two pounds against Rogerio Bontorin at UFC Fight Night 167 in 2020. Borg also leveraged his size difference on the ground and cruised to a dominant unanimous-decision victory.

So it seems Luiz Hernandez will be brimming with confidence heading into his bout with Sedriques Dumas, knowing he can lean on his grappling to dominate and win the fight. Now it remains to be seen whether he turns that weight edge to his advantage or not.