UFC Sao Paulo: Jan Blachowicz vs Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza: Prediction and Fight BreakDown

UFC Sao Paulo features a main event between Jan Blachowicz and UFC veteran, Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza. Jan Blachowicz vs Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza is a crucial fight in the light heavyweight division. Dominick Reyes is going to face Jon Jones next most likely, but who is next after that. Corey Anderson does make sense to challenge the champion. However, if Jan Blachowicz gets past Ronaldo Souza who is a veteran of the sports and a big name in the middleweight division, then it would be difficult to deny him a title shot soon in a division where not many new faces are left who deserves to face Jones for the title. 

On the other hand, Jacare Souza will be looking to start fresh by moving up to light heavyweight division. He has come close to getting a title shot in the middleweight division on many occasions, but a loss here and there has kept him away from the UFC glory despite being a veteran of the sports and one of the well-known fighters on the roaster. 

Jacare Souza has some huge wins in the middleweight division and some disappointing losses too. After being on a 5 fight win streak he lost to Yoel Romero. Then after a couple of wins, he lost to Robert Whittaker. He would bounce back from that loss with a win over Derek Brunson only to lose to Kelvin Gastelum again. He would again get back on the winning track against Chris Weidman but would lose to Jack Hermansson in the next fight. This has been the story of Jacare Souza. His inconsistency in the octagon has kept him away from a title shot. 

That’s all in the past now as Jacare Souza is looking for a new start in the light heavyweight division. He has always been too big for the middleweight division and moving up to light heavyweight where he has more possibility of getting a title shot than in the middleweight division certainly is a sensible move.

Jacare Souza is known for his ground game. He is the mastery in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and he uses that inside the octagon very well. That apart his striking game is no joke either. It’s basic but very effective. In addition to that, he can absorb some heavy shots in the fight too. His recent losses do not look bad at all when you consider who has he lost to. He lost against former champion, Robert Whittaker, a split decision loss to Kelvin Gastelum and a decision loss against Jack Hermansson. Moving up Souza won’t have to bother too much about weight cut and he will pack more power.

After two back to back losses against Alexander Gustafsson and Patrick Cummins in the light heavyweight, Jan Blachowicz returned to his former coach, which was one of the best decisions Blachowicz has taken in his fight career according to the Polish fighter.

After training with his former coach he went on to win four consecutive fights including some impressive wins against Jimi Manuwa and Jared Cannonier. However, he would lose to Thiago Santos via knock out, which is not a bad loss at all considering how good Santos is. However, a win over former middleweight champion, Luk Rockhold has out Blachowicz in a sweet spot. He is one or maybe two wins away from getting a title shot. With that said, a win over Jacare Souza would be a huge addition to his resume for sure.

Blachowicz is an elite striker with some scary knock out power. However, his ground game is very underrated. He is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and he has phenomenal takedown defense. Luke Rockhold tried his best to take Blachowicz down after he had him up against the cage, but he could not. He also has submissions such as armbar and rear-naked choke in his arsenal.

If you match Blachowicz and Souza skills per skill, Souza is the more accomplished fighter. However, he is making a jump of 20pounds, which is huge. We have seen lightweight such as Jorge Masvidal moving up to welterweight and finding success over there. Robert Whittaker moved to middleweight and became the champion, however, they went up by 10 pounds. In the case of Jacare Souza, it’s 20 pounds and that will play a factor in this fight against Blachowicz.

There is a huge power difference between the middleweights and a legit light heavyweight. Though Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith have done well after they move up to 205, they had still a ton of time in their fighting career. However, Chris Weidman, Luke Rockhold, and Jacare Souza are making the move very close to their end of the career.

Chris Weidman could not control Dominick Reyes on the ground even after securing the takedown and got knocked out. Luke Rockhold also seemed clueless against Blachowicz when he could not out grapple him. The outcome is likely to be the same in this fight too.

The power difference will be too much to deal with for Jacare Souza. Agreed Souza has the skills to finish the fight on the ground, but Blachowicz’s takedown defense is excellent, and he can scramble on the ground. On the feet, none of the fighters is a wizard in striking, but the power advantage again goes to Blachowicz.

It won’t be a test of skills for Jacare Souza in the light heavyweight. His cardio, strength, and his ability to absorb strikes against the light heavyweights will be tested in this fight. I see Souza getting some success early in the fight, but Blachowicz will dominate the later rounds if the fight goes that far. Blachowicz is likely to finish the fight with another KO.