After 5 years of sunshine, this time spectators at the Kentucky Derby might have to deal with a side of rain with their mint juleps. That’s right, just before the 151st Kentucky Derby is set to kick off, officials at Churchill Downs officials have issued a safety alert due to expected thunderstorms in Louisville. But the good news is that on derby day, visitors shouldn’t expect anything more than some light rain showers. The bad news is that we’re in for some wet and slippery track conditions, even if the rain breaks, leading to concerns about the horses.

Kevin Kerstein shared a cautious 5 PM update about keeping the main track sealed amid rain concern. He informed fans that “the main track remained sealed during morning training in anticipation of possible rain showers.” He added “The track maintenance crew will continue to monitor the forecast and, if the rain holds off, will harrow the surface ahead of the 11 a.m. opener.” Kevin concluded by saying, “the turf is listed as firm,” offering a cautious but optimistic outlook only for a heavy shower to hit shortly after.

At 6:42 PM, Kerstein himself declared, “aaaand I jinxed us,” confirming the main track was now sloppy. “Heaver rain shower just moved through the area. Main track is currently sloppy.” With the Kentucky Derby about to begin in just a few hours, this sudden weather shift is raising real safety alarms for horses and owners alike. Track conditions can make or break performance and safety, and fans and trainers are anxiously hooked up for updates.

Heavy rains can write unexpected Kentucky Derby narratives

The quick shift in weather has put pressure on trainers, bettors, and race strategists to reassess their expectations. Track conditions always play a pivotal role in outcomes. For example, the 2017 Derby winner Always Dreaming, who thrived in the slop, or 2013’s Orb, who burst past the field in muddy conditions were thanks to their comfort in these situations.

Some horses adapt well to wet or muddy surfaces, like Final Gambit and Coal Battle. Both of whom have proven success on off-tracks. On the flip side, colts like Neoequos and American Promise have yet to race on such terrain, adding unpredictability to their performance.

Historically, weather has played a role in shaking up Derby results, though not always as the deciding factor. The infamous 2019 Derby saw Maximum Security disqualified for interference. It may not have been directly because of the rain, but many argued that the sloppy conditions contributed to his erratic drift across lanes.

According to the National Weather Service, Louisville faces a 90% chance of rain throughout the day, with temperatures around 65°F. Storm bands are expected to arrive in waves, making it unlikely the track will dry ahead of the main event.

Fans at the venue have donned ponchos and umbrellas, but for the contenders, there’s no hiding from the mud. With tension building and weather dominating headlines, the 151st edition of the Kentucky Derby may be remembered not just for who wins, but for how the race braved the storm.