The one hundred and fifty-first edition of The Run for the Roses is right around the corner. In fact, we only have a day till the jockeys and horses line up to take the most prestigious Derby title in the world. What’s more? Bob Baffert’s return three years after the Medina Spirit controversy and subsequent suspension has fans hyped. Yet, Baffert’s grand return to the Kentucky Derby already took a big hit even before it got off the ground.

“Out of an abundance of caution, we have made a very tough decision to scratch our Derby horse, Rodriguez,” wrote SF racing head Tom Ryan. Yes, that’s the same Rodriguez who was one of the pair of horses Baffert entered into the 2025 Derby. Chasing a historic 7th win, the 72-year-old will now have to rely on Citizen Bull. Yet, if you thought that was bad news, TK Kuegler had a terrible update that might put millions in bets on the line.

Yes, millions. That’s because, as per NBC News, the betting numbers for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs crossed yet another milestone last year. Churchill Downs Inc. reported that last year, fans wagered a mindboggling $210.7 million on the Derby. That number was $188 million in 2023. Unfortunately, Kuegler became the bearer of concerning news. “I have gotten word that there are three more scratches coming for the Derby field. Let’s see if that holds out to be true,” posted the WV Stables founder.

At least part of those massive betting numbers come from the early betting practice. So much so that the Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens four months ahead of race day. “The future bet is traditionally open during four different periods– usually in November, February, March, and April,” reads the official Twinspires.com betting guide page. Yet, there’s more.

We have also entered the advance wagering window, which goes live “close to 24 hours” before the race. Fans who bet on the race get their money back in special cases, like Rodriguez bowing out of the Derby. However, multiple horses bowing out of the race at the last moment could set Derby’s betting back by millions. Yet, amid Bob Baffert’s bad luck, fans now have a new contender to consider.

A new racer finds their Kentucky Derby spot

With Rodriguez out of the picture, Bob Baffert has suddenly lost 50% of his odds to win the record-breaking 7th Kentucky Derby. Baffert returning after a three-year suspension to become the only trainer to win seven Kentucky Derby titles would be an ultimate power move. Yet, Rodriguez’s exit due to a bruise has to hurt. Then again, the renowned trainer can’t risk it.

Rodriguez’s owner, Tom Ryan, explained exactly what happened to Rodriguez. “He has a small but slightly sensitive foot bruise that will need a few more days. Therefore, we are resetting our plans and will target him for the Preakness,” explained the SF Racing head. Baffert’s horse’s exit also makes the 20-horse field more competitive, as John Shirreffs’ horse Baeza entered the Kentucky Derby.

Shirreffs was quite confident about Baeza’s abilities after the Santa Anita Derby last month. “He’s been very, very good,” he told HorseRacingNation ahead of Santa Anita. “Baeza always got my attention with how lightly he hits the track. He’s very, very light on the track,” explained John Shirreffs. And everyone saw just how true those words are at the G1 Santa Anita.

Baeza was the runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby. To put that into perspective, Journalism took 1st place in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and remains the favorite to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Meanwhile, Baffert’s only horse in the race after Rodriguez, Citizen Bull, made a surprisingly lackluster 4th-place finish at Santa Anita last month. So will Baffert make a triumphant return and TK Kuegler turn out to be a flash alar? Thankfully, fns won’t have to wait too long to find out.