Bob Baffert’s quest for Breeders’ Cup Classic glory really picked up steam on September 27 when he scored an impressive win in the Grade 1, $300,000 Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita Park. Nevada Beach, a three-year-old colt, just had his fourth career start and his first time in graded stakes. He pulled off an 8-1 upset against the heavily favored Full Serrano, who had won the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

Baffert just scored his ninth win in the Goodwood, and even better, Nevada Beach snagged an automatic spot in the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar on November 1. The Hall of Fame trainer was just impressed with the colt’s performance, saying, “We have always been really high on this horse. I always thought he had this in him. This one is really special. I really appreciate wins like this when you don’t expect them.” Indeed, the win was so impressive that it sparked a bold prediction, showing just how much Nevada Beach’s status has shifted.

On X, journalist Ed DeRosa wrote, “Crazy that Nevada Beach would be champion 3yo male with a Breeders’ Cup Classic win.” This statement highlights how important the Classic is, since winning America’s richest race would likely boost a three-year-old into Eclipse Award contention.

For Nevada Beach, pulling off something like that would be quite the impressive leap. Just a few weeks back, he was this promising but untested colt; if he pulls off a win against the top older horses in the Classic, he’d become the division champion in a story that felt pretty unlikely before the Goodwood. But this opinion quickly grabbed the attention of the horse racing community, and they weren’t on board with it.

Fans didn’t agree with this Bob Baffert-trained colt prediction

There’s been a lot of chatter lately about Bob Baffert’s bold prediction that his late-blooming colt, Nevada Beach, could take home the win at the Breeders’ Cup Classic. It’s got  fans sharing their thoughts on whether this could actually happen. A fan summed it up nicely, saying, “Only if Sovereignty was a total no-show,” highlighting the clear hierarchy among the three-year-olds. Sovereignty, the winner of the Kentucky Derby, had already shown his talent by beating other strong competitors like Journalism. His team decided to pass on the Preakness, choosing instead to give him a break before the Belmont Stakes. Some experts still think that this move did give him an edge later on.

This user brought up an interesting point, mentioning that Nevada Beach didn’t compete against a strong lineup, saying, “Yea that ship has sailed, but he ran well in a field of not much. I hope some of these fill out the field like Mystik Dan, Locked, and Nevada so we get a bigger field.” Someone shared a thought that’s kind of along the same lines: “A late-developing colt can dominate the second half of the year, as ARROGATE did. But winning a BC Classic against older horses carries more weight than excelling in the Triple Crown after grinding for qualifying points. I don’t think so.”

Bob Baffert’s Arrogate was kind of an under-the-radar horse until he really made a name for himself with an incredible 13 1/2-length win in the 2016 Travers Stakes, breaking a track record that had stood for 37 years. He solidified his reputation by taking down the older, reigning Horse of the Year, California Chrome, in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic. If we consider this setting, it’s possible that Nevada Beach has a chance.

One fan mentioned how popular the colt is, saying, “If Nevada Beach wins the BC Classic, it would be one of Baffert’s greatest training jobs. Most people didn’t know he existed until 2 hours ago.” So, the only significant race that Nevada Beach participated in this year, besides the Goodwood Stakes, was the Los Alamitos Derby on June 28. He’s not as popular, compared to Sovereignty and Journalism, who not only have Triple Crown experience but have also totally dominated several graded races.

In a similar vein, this fan mentioned, “He should be one of the top contenders in what‘s going to be a loaded Breeders’ Cup Classic with Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza, Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Antiquarian, and whoever decides to be in the mix. Should be a good race if everyone stays healthy.” The discussion about Bob Baffert and Nevada Beach really highlights the exciting unpredictability of horse racing. It’s fascinating how an underdog colt can step up and take on the big-name champions. In the end, the Breeders’ Cup Classic will show us if this daring prediction turns into one of those amazing underdog tales or if it just proves how strong the favorite, Sovereignty, really is.