We’ve all heard of the President’s Trophy curse, but have you heard of the $10M AAV curse? The first stage of the 2024-25 NHL playoffs is over. What started as a competition with 16 teams is now down to four, and only two series are left before the fans get their Stanley Cup finalists. So, as we head to the NHL Conference Finals, four teams with very different trajectories have made it past everyone. However, you could argue that the Edmonton Oilers have had the most polarizing journey so far, and it looks like Connor McDavid, or rather his bumper contract, might be working against them.

After dropping two back-to-back games against the longstanding NHL playoff rivals, the LA Kings, things looked grim. While they did win Game 3, the Oilers lost Game 4, and the Kings were starting to believe. However, since that loss, Edmonton flipped the script on its head and pulled off six consecutive comeback-from-behind wins. And just when it looked like Vegas had finally figured out the Oilers, they beat the odds again with two shutout wins to make the conference finals. Yet, the coast is not clear.

Besides Dallas posing the biggest threat to the Oilers’ Stanley Cup dreams, there’s one curse that no team has been able to beat. “Reminder. No player with an AAV over $10M has ever won the Stanley Cup. Depth wins,” posted SDPN Executive Producer Drew Livingstone. What’s more? None of the other three teams has players who match Connor McDavid’s $12.5 million AAV (Average Annual Value).

“Dallas has none. Carolina has none. FLA has players right on the nose. Only Edmonton has someone OVER 10M,” Livingstone posted again for those who argued the players like Jack Eichel, Aleksander Barkov, and Sergei Bobrovsky had done it before. Meanwhile, Livingston argued that no one exceeding $10 million had won a Stanley Cup before.

While all three NHL icons won the Stanley Cup, their AAV capped out at $10,000,000 when they hoisted the cup. Dallas Stars’ players like Jamie Benn (AAV – $9,500,000) and Tyler Seguin (AAV – $9,850,000) don’t match up either. The outlook looks grim, but can Connor McDavid defeat the curse? Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against the Oilers’ star.

The trends are not favoring Connor McDavid

One team has already fallen to another long-standing NHL playoff curse that is 15 years in the running. Wondering who? You’d be correct if you guessed the President’s Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets falling against Dallas in Round 2. The last President’s Trophy-winning team that went on to win the Stanley Cup was the Chicago Blackhawks in 2013.

While the Jets made it to Game six against the Dallas Stars in their first year as Presidents’ Trophy winners, last year’s conference finalists proved too much for the side. Although Jets’ star Mark Scheifele losing his father hours before the game underscored their loss, the curse still stands. What’s more? The predictions aren’t going Edmonton’s way either.

Money Puck puts the defending champions in the front of the pack with a 50.1% chance to make the finals and a 28.8% chance to win it all. Meanwhile, last year’s runner-up comes in at 4th with a 45% chance to make the playoffs and 18.2% chance to win the Stanley Cup. Then again, these are just predictions, and Money Puck had Toronto as the front-runners at one point.

That being said, the biggest hurdle in Connor McDavid’s way is that he couldn’t overcome this curse last year. McDavid signed his $12.5 million AAV contract in 2017 and made it all the way to the finals last year against the Panthers. So the question is: Can the NHL icon do it if he gets another shot? Well, the Oilers first have to get through Dallas before we can find an answer.