The Eastern and Western Conference finals are still a few days away, but the spreadsheets are already talking. Early-morning odds from analytics hub MoneyPuck show the Florida Panthers standing alone atop the Stanley Cup projections. Anyone who remembers last spring’s march through Boston, Toronto, and Edmonton knows why fans are suddenly picturing another sun-soaked parade along the Intracoastal.

There’s a catch, of course: Florida’s advantage over the Carolina Hurricanes, Dallas Stars, and Edmonton Oilers is small enough to fit on the back of a ticket stub. In other words, it may not be wise to bet everything on the Panthers just yet, especially with Connor McDavid, Sebastian Aho, and Jason Robertson still in the hunt.

MoneyPuck’s update gives Florida a 28.5 percent chance to win it all, a hair above Carolina’s 28.3 percent. Dallas checks in at 24.9 percent, while Edmonton rounds out the field at 18.3 percent.

The ‘Make Final’ column, however, flips the script: Carolina holds a 50.3 percent probability of reaching the championship series, edging Florida’s 49.7 percent. Over in the West, Dallas enjoys a 54.8 percent path to the big dance, while Edmonton sits at 45.2 percent—a gap that could evaporate if McDavid keeps piling up multi-point nights.

Dig deeper into the series-length projections, and a pattern emerges. Out West, the Stars hold a narrow edge in every scenario longer than five games, reflecting their balanced scoring and Jake Oettinger’s playoff save percentage of .919. Meanwhile, the Canes carry the highest probability of winning a seventh (16.7 percent). As for the Panthers, they they have the best chance to end the East final in six games (16.9 percent).

Why Florida’s numbers outshine the field

Models don’t show favoritism—they grade health, recent form, and roster depth. Florida clicks all three boxes. Aleksander Barkov is fully healthy, Matthew Tkachuk’s shoulder scare is in the rear-view mirror, and Sergei Bobrovsky is rolling with a .901 postseason save clip. And alongside the veteran Aaron Ekblad, their blue line now features Seth Jones, who, alongside deadline-day acquisition Brad Marchand, seems to be settling in just fine in the Panthers’ den. The D-man has taken absolutely no time to earn the trust of Paul Maurice, who has given him an average TOI of 25:45 this postseason. Jones has also made sure to pay back the coach with some serious dividends, having racked up 6 points in 12 playoff games. What’s more? In just Game 7 of the second round, not only did the D-man open the scoring and register an assist, but he also did not allow Auston Matthews and co. to catch a break when he was on the ice in a five-on-five situation.

And while the Florida Panthers may have NHL superstars in their midst, what makes them truly intimidating is that they like to hunt in packs. The second round series saw as many as 20 skaters score at least a point, while Sergei Bobrovsky allowed two goals or less in the final four games. And come the Conference Finals on Tuesday, the Panthers will be entering familiar territory—one that they conquered back in 2023 when Matthew Tkachuk’s buzzer-beater helped them sweep the Canes 4-0.

None of that guarantees another Cup. That series back in 2023 was more closely contested than what the 4-0 scoreline makes it seem like, with each game decided by a difference of just one goal. Moreover, Carolina, too, has impressive depth (ask the Washington Capitals) and a goalie in Frederik Andersen who’s leading the postseason save percentage chart with .937. Besides, Dallas has the Mikko Rantanen factor, and Edmonton still ices the planet’s most dangerous player. But the models weigh every variable, then lean—ever so slightly—toward the defending champs.

Florida sits on a 28.5 percent throne today, but the cushion is thin enough to disappear with one cold night or an untimely Bobrovsky misread. MoneyPuck’s numbers merely confirm what the last month of chaos has screamed: no juggernaut is safe, and one overtime bounce can redraw the odds in real time. And these playoffs have made a habit of shredding projections.