Is FIFA to be blamed for Iran’s World Cup exit, or is it fortune? According to FOX Sports’ Alexi Lalas, it’s the second one. If you ask him, Iran simply were not bold enough to curry favor with Lady Luck. The Iranian team missed the knockout stage on goal difference, and fans on social media were complaining about the competition’s format. Former US soccer player Lalas begged to differ. He was blunt in his assessment of the team’s performance, saying,

“Iran’s problem wasn’t the format, it’s that they couldn’t win a group game.”

He said this in reply to a user comment on X that blamed the tournament’s format for Iran’s fate. While the FOX World Cup host did have a point about Iran not winning a game, the user was not entirely wrong in his assessment of the situation either.

All three of Iran’s games ended in a draw, giving them three points after three matches. However, they missed out on reaching the next round to Senegal, who had the same points but a better goal difference.

“Hard done by” would be an understatement for the Iranian team, who had some close offside calls go against them at this competition. During their match against Belgium, Iran took the lead with a brilliantly constructed free kick, converted by Mehdi Taremi, but the goal was disallowed after VAR ruled it offside.

The ultimate heartbreak for the Iranian team came in their final group stage match against Egypt, when the teams were locked at 1-1 in injury time. In what could have been a fairytale finish, Shojae Khalilzadeh scored the second goal in injury time, sending the fans and the team into celebrations on the sidelines, only for VAR to send a similar offside verdict once more, ending the match in a tie.

On the other hand, Lalas’s point also had merit, as Iran could have (and should have) done better against New Zealand, who are the lowest-ranked team at the World Cup. Conceding twice against the All Whites was a poor showing by the Iranian team, known for their airtight defense. Against Egypt, Taremi missed a penalty that could have changed the match’s result.

However, even after everything, when the score was 3-2 in Algeria’s favor against Austria, Iran must have had a ray of hope, only for it to be extinguished by an equalizer at the last moment. Herein comes the fortune factor.

Beyond the offside calls and missed penalties, Iran were seriously running on fumes when talking about luck. For them to miss the knockout berth, three things had to happen: Algeira vs Austria ending in a draw, Croatia winning at least a point against Ghana, and Uzbekistan losing to DR Congo. For Iran to advance, one of three scenarios needed to occur: Algeria-Austria with a winner, OR Uzbekistan losing, OR Ghana winning.

What are the odds that everything that could go wrong for them went wrong?

Geopolitical conflicts across the world have played out at this World Cup, with Iran at its center. Due to ongoing tensions with the host nation, the Iranian team faced numerous logistical challenges at this event. Even though the players were allowed to enter the country, some members of the support staff, including the medical staff, were not, which affected the team.

Furthermore, the team’s base of operations was moved from Arizona to Tijuana, and they had to fly in and out between matches, which could be exhausting for the players. The team’s coach, Amir Ghalenoei, had an emotional say after their first match, stating the difficulties his team faced.

“We’re supposed to stay here tonight to recover and return at lunchtime tomorrow, but they haven’t permitted us. To be honest, I have no idea why. I think perhaps our team is the most oppressed one in the whole World Cup”, said Ghalenoei at the press conference after the New Zealand Game.

With the extended format and 32 teams making it to the knockouts, Iran would have been hopeful of reaching the next stage, which they have not achieved in seven appearances at the tournament, despite close misses. They were one of the top Asian sides in the competition, but could not join the likes of Japan and Australia, the only Asia-Pacific teams to reach the knockouts.