Germany entered the game as the clear favorite against Paraguay but fell behind after Julio Enciso scored at 42:00. However, the four-time World Cup Champions responded with Kai Havertz equalizing at 54:00, and the comeback seemed complete when Jonathan Tah scored in the first half of extra time. However, a controversial VAR call wiped the goal. By the time the penalty shootout ended, fans had witnessed the 4th biggest loss by ranking disparity in FIFA World Cup history. The loss also inadvertently made USWNT’s path easier in the knockout stages.

Germany, who came into the game ranked 10th in official FIFA rankings, took the initiative against No 41 Paraguay. They had more of the ball and created more chances, but they could not score first. Paraguay surprised them by scoring in the 42nd minute through Julio Enciso. In the second half, Germany fought back. Kai Havertz scored a header to make the score 1-1, and the match went into extra time because both teams were still level.

In extra time, Germany thought they had won the match. Jonathan Tah headed the ball into the net in the 102nd minute of extra time, and Germany thought they had taken a 2-1 lead. The players celebrated because it looked like they had scored the winning goal. But before the match restarted, the VAR officials checked the replay.

They saw that, just before Tah scored, Germany defender Waldemar Anton had made contact with Paraguay goalkeeper Orlando Gill while a corner kick came into the penalty area. Referee Jalal Jayed went to the monitor to review the incident and decided to stick with the VAR decision that Anton had blocked or interfered with Gill, making it harder for the goalkeeper to try to save Tah’s header. In the penalties, Paraguay won 4-3 against Germany and knocked them out.

“Today’s team performance definitely doesn’t need any sugarcoating… but what the hell was that VAR decision? In the Premier League, they’d just give a weary smile over something like that – especially taking back a decision. Of course, it was brutally disappointing too. Unfortunately, we failed to convince over 120 minutes ourselves,” Former Germany captain Ilkay Gündoğan said via his X handle.

Germany failed to reach the Round of 16 for the third consecutive World Cup. Before the tournament started, people thought Germany had a good chance to win the whole World Cup as they had +1400 odds, whereas Paraguay was not expected to do well at all. They had very long odds (+25000). But Paraguay surprised everyone by beating Germany and reaching the Round of 16 for the first time since 2010.

How Germany’s loss works as a boon for the USMNT

Germany’s loss comes as good news for the hosts, at least on paper. As France and Germany were clear favorites to enter the semifinals, but after Germany’s knockout, they will have one less tough opponent to worry about. The United States is currently set to play Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32. If Mauricio Pochettino’s team wins that match, it will face either New Zealand or Czechia in the Round of 16.

This means the U.S. avoids several top teams in the early knockout rounds. The competition is expected to become more difficult in the quarter-finals. At that stage, the United States could face DR Congo, Ghana, Uruguay, or Austria. But Germany’s loss is a major add-on.

Germany’s defeat to Paraguay is now considered the fourth biggest upset in FIFA World Cup history. Only three World Cup upsets rank higher. In 2018, Russia ranked 70th in the world and won against 10th-ranked Spain in the Round of 16. Then in 2002, South Korea, ranked 40th, defeated 6th-ranked Italy in the Round of 16.

Later in the same tournament, South Korea stunned 8th-ranked Spain in the quarter-finals. Now, Germany’s loss to Paraguay joins the list of heartbreaks, creating opportunities for other teams.