The series hasn’t quite turned into the nail-biter we all imagined. The Aces huffed and puffed their way past the Indiana Fever, needing a Game 5 overtime thriller to advance, while the Mercury steamrolled the Minnesota Lynx. Sure, the Lynx lost Napheesa Collier midway through the series, but in Mercury’s defense, the Aces faced a Fever squad missing five key players. It would be fair to say that Alyssa Thomas and co had an equal chance of winning the Finals; if anything, they probably entered the series as the favorites.

But that hasn’t been the case for the Mercury so far. They’re staring down the possibility of a series sweep at the hands of Becky Hammon’s Aces and will also be without their postseason top scorer, Satou Sabally. Things aren’t looking great. Still, Isis “Ice” Young of Yahoo Sports sees reasons to believe the Mercury might still avoid the sweep and cause some issues to Becky Hammon.

Speaking on the Yahoo Sports YouTube channel, Young said: “You got nothing to lose. That’s why I think they might win the next game. You got nothing to lose. They’re going to come out there, bombs away, attacking, have a decent game plan. Hopefully, Nate Tibbetts has another sleeve up his trick that he can use to throw them off defensively. I even thought too, in those spurts, like Phoenix has it. They have enough to defend the Aces and to make it tough. Like during that last three-minute stretch, you felt like, yeah, there weren’t necessarily easy answers. They were making sure that they covered all the areas that needed to be.”

And she’s right. The Mercury got off to a rough start, falling behind 21-8 in the first quarter after a 17-0 Aces run and conceding 55 points by halftime–the most they’d ever allowed in a postseason game. Still, they battled back in the fourth, led by veterans Kahleah Copper and DeWanna Bonner, who combined for 20 of Phoenix’s 29 points in the final 10 minutes. Copper even scored 11 straight points at one stretch, while Bonner tied the game twice in the final two minutes. Yet, it wasn’t enough.

The Mercury managed to hold the Aces to just 14 points in the fourth quarter, and if not for the individual brilliance of A’ja Wilson, they might have taken the game. Wilson poured in 34 points, grabbed 14 rebounds, added 4 assists, and blocked 3 shots. The performance marked her ninth career 30-point playoff game and her fourth just this postseason–both all-time records. She capped it off with a clutch turnaround jumper in the dying seconds to seal the victory.

But it’s not just Game 3 where Alyssa Thomas and the Mercury came close. If Thomas had made those two free throws in the final moments, Phoenix could have been up 2-1 in the series. Instead, they sit 0-3, having lost two games by a combined total of just five points. Talk about fine margins.

But for that to happen, coach Nate Tibbetts will need to find answers–both for Satou Sabally’s absence and the Aces’ suffocating zone defense. In Game 3, he tried to shake things up by putting Alyssa Thomas on Chelsea Gray, while Natasha Mack and Monique Makani took turns on A’ja Wilson. The plan didn’t quite work, and Mack was taken out of the rotation in the second half. Still, she could be back in play for Game 4, along with Kathryn Westbeld, who logged just four minutes after halftime last game, as they need someone to replace Sabally.

Of course, Nate Tibbetts made those adjustments to counter Becky Hammon’s zone defense — a tactic that has effectively neutralized Alyssa Thomas’ impact. The Aces held Thomas to just 10 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists in Game 2. That’s a far cry from the player who set records this season with 8 triple-doubles and 22 double-doubles. Thomas has been the driving force behind the Mercury’s success all year, and keeping her in check has been the key to the Aces’ dominance in this series.

But as Young pointed out, don’t be surprised if Coach Tibbetts switches things up to counter that defense — after all, the Mercury have nothing left to lose. Comebacks have been their story this postseason. They erased a 20-point deficit in Game 2 of the semifinals against the Minnesota Lynx and stunned them again in Game 4 after trailing by 13. It hasn’t clicked so far in the Finals, but with their backs against the wall and the home crowd behind them, who’s to say they can’t pull off one more miracle?

That said, Alyssa Thomas wasn’t pleased with her team’s defensive effort in Game 3.

Alyssa Thomas unhappy with the Mercury defense

For Alyssa Thomas, winning a championship has been the goal since day one. “Yeah, to win a championship, I feel like none of the records or any of it is complete without a championship,” she once said. This marks her third trip to the Finals — and heartbreak has followed the first two. One of those losses came against this very same Aces team, when her Connecticut Sun were gentleman swept 3-1. Unfortunately, history seems to be repeating itself, and Thomas might once again find herself on the wrong side of the celebration.

Things could’ve looked very different had the Mercury managed to close out Games 1 and 3. After the latest loss, Alyssa Thomas addressed the media and pointed out what went wrong early on. “You know, it took us too long to wake up and play defense. I think the second half is our basketball and how we play. So, shame on us for not coming out the way that we needed to come out,” she said.

No team in WNBA history has ever come back from being down 0-3, and thinking the Mercury will win the series feels more like wishful thinking than reality. At this point, the odds are stacked heavily against them. But can they at least keep the series alive in Game 4, or are we about to witness a clean sweep? Share your thoughts in the comments below!