After Game 2, it did seem like the Indiana Fever might actually have a chance to beat the Las Vegas Aces. But the series decider, Game 3, was a testament to the Aces’ brilliance, led by the reigning MVP and the most successful coach in the last five years. They have a roster filled with certified winners and some of the best veterans in the league today.
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Can any team beat them now that the competition has moved to the next level and the defending champions have the space to make mistakes and correct them? WNBA legend Candace Parker has a hard time imagining any team beating the Aces three or four times in the next two playoff series.
“Best of 3 scenario favored everyone else…. Luck up and win 2. But now… Who are the Aces losing to in a best of 5 or 7? They have to lose 3 times and 4 times,” Parker wrote on X.
According to Parker, the first-round series gives lower-seed teams a chance to put higher-seed teams under pressure or even win the series. They also get a home-court advantage in Game 2. But with the next two series giving them home-court advantage in the first two games (if it is not the Golden State Valkyries), the defending champions will have room to take control.
During the Aces’ win over the Fever, Parker highlighted on X how great Wilson and Co. had played despite several setbacks.
“What’s incredible is Vegas is doing this after releasing [Chennedy] Carter, losing [NaLyssa] Smith to injury and a short bench tonight without [Stephanie] Talbot and [Dana] Evans… Incredible.”
While Evans and Smith have been out with injuries, Talbot was ruled out for Game 3 with a leg injury. The Aces’ roster has already been compromised with injuries, but it hasn’t impacted them big time so far.
Wilson and Co. will face the winner of the Dallas Wings-Golden State Valkyries series. If the Aces face the Wings, on paper, they will have an easier time dealing with what the Wings bring. Paige Bueckers and Co. have inferior depth on both ends, compared to the Aces. But more importantly, they lack playoff and championship experience.
On the other hand, if Las Vegas faces the Valkyries, they are still favored to win despite what the numbers suggest. The Valkyries were by far the best defensive team in the league during the regular season, compared to the Aces (5th). Las Vegas almost neutralizes it with their offensive advantage (2nd vs. 7th).
The Valkyries have a better win-loss record, which would give them the home-court advantage. But their head-to-head record gives the Aces a big upper hand. They have played each other seven times, and the Aces lead 6-1. This season, the defending champions swept them in three matchups.
While the Valkyries are tied at 1-1 in the first-round series, they have played with elite offense. They have also been extremely good at taking care of business. Natalie Nakase has previously been the assistant coach on the Aces; she might have a hole or two to attack if they meet, even if she has failed in the regular season.
From the remaining Atlanta Dream and the New York Liberty, the winner can be a real threat to the Aces. Both the Dream and the Liberty have dominated the defensive numbers in the postseason. New York leads in blocks and is ranked second in rebounds and steals. They also rank second with a +16.0 point differential, right behind Atlanta’s +16.5.
The Dream haven’t shown numbers that should project them as a formidable threat to the Aces so far. However, their roster features the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, the top-three steals leader, and a young, talented squad that swept the Washington Mystics. The Dream hasn’t been tested yet, and they might find out in the next round.
Meanwhile, the Aces haven’t been as dominant as they were in 2022 and 2023, but that didn’t stop them from winning the title last year. They are driven by a winning culture that the great Candace Parker was part of when she won the title.