Finally, Dallas’ long, nightmarish season is coming to an end in the College Park Center tonight. Rebuilding is always difficult, but to be at the bottom of the league is something different entirely. Curt Miller and Chris Koclanes haven’t been able to figure out the formula, even with rookie superstar Paige Bueckers on their side.

On the other hand, the Phoenix Mercury is a lock for the fourth position and will be looking to enter the playoffs with a little bit of momentum on their side. Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally make up a menacing frontcourt for Phoenix, and they’ll be looking to dominate inside the paint against Dallas. Both teams really want this win, be it for momentum or a strong finish. So, how do the two teams stack up? Let’s take a look at all the necessary details.

Where to watch?

• Game day: Thursday, September 11, 2025
• Game time: 8PM ET
• TV channel: KFAA, AZFamily, and Merc+
• Location: Arlington, Texas
• Arena: College Park Center

Injury report

Dallas Wings:

Arike Ogunbowale (knee) – OUT

Li Yueru (knee) – OUT

Luisa Geiselsoder (shoulder) – OUT

JJ Quinerly (knee) – OUT

Tyasha Harris (knee) – OUT

Phoenix Mercury:

Lexi Held – Day-to-day

DeWanna Bonner – OUT

Probable lineups

Dallas Wings:

Myisha Hines-Allen

Paige Bueckers

Maddy Siegrist

Grace Berger

Haley Jones

Phoenix Mercury:

Alyssa Thomas

Natasha Mack

Satou Sabally

Kahleah Copper

Monique Akoa Makani

Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury: Who comes out ahead?

A dead-rubber game. That’s probably the word most fans will use to describe this game, and for good reason, too. The greater outcome is already decided regardless of the result for this matchup – Dallas goes home, while Phoenix heads to the first round of the playoffs. But a win here could really make a huge statement for the Wings franchise and validate their fans’ hopes for a better season next year. So, how do the two teams match up?

In terms of talent, the Phoenix Mercury clears by a huge margin. Their frontcourt, consisting of Sabally and Thomas, is phenomenal and has the potential to win them the game single-handedly. Phoenix’s 27-16 record drastically outmatches the 9-34 run that Dallas has been on. They’re the superior team by far, but the odds aren’t as lopsided as you’d think.

See, Phoenix is coming off a two-game losing streak, even conceding a game to the Connecticut Sun on September 6, a team with a similar record as Dallas. Even ESPN’s matchup predictor has only given the Mercury a 52.2% chance of winning the game, signaling uncertainty of which way the winds will blow tonight.

Looking at team stats, the 83 PPG that Phoenix puts up is 5.3 less than what Dallas is used to giving (88.3). Not to mention, Phoenix has a 10-2 record when putting up MORE than 88.3 points. Koclanes’ team, on the other hand, puts up an average of 81.3 points per game, only 1.6 more than the 79.7 that Phoenix allows. So what does this tell us about both teams?

Dallas’ offense, centered around Paige Bueckers’ 19.1 points and 5.3 assists per game, is reliant on their shooters getting hot. Both Siegrist and Hines-Allen can space the floor and act as stretch bigs. But when they’re inside? Bueckers and Haley Jones get the perennial greenlight. However, getting second-chance opportunities won’t be easy against the Mercury. Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Natasha Mack combine for over 20 boards a game and will be dominating the glass in tonight’s matchup.

Stay tuned for this Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury matchup, because even though it might be a dead-rubber, we’re still expecting some exciting basketball!