The Golden State Valkyries and Atlanta Dream are both in a position to compete for the biggest prize in the WNBA. But at the end of the day, that ultimate silverware will end up with one of these two franchises. And as it appears, ESPN’s analytics seem to have a clear view of which one that will be.

Ahead of the WNBA Finals series, which tips off on October 17, ESPN updated its 2026 WNBA Basketball Power Index, and according to its model, the Golden State Valkyries are the strongest favorite to win the championship. Specifically, the analytics give the Valkyries a 62.8 percent chance of winning, and the Dream a 37.2 percent chance.

Interestingly, neither of these two franchises was considered a likely finalist heading into the season. At the start of the year, sportsbooks and analysts heavily favored a showdown between established powerhouses like the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty. The Minnesota Lynx also showed enough during the season to attract significant championship support. 

However, all three of those franchises are now watching from home. In fact, the Atlanta Dream actually swept the Liberty 3-0 in the semifinals. And in the same vein, the Golden State Valkyries also swept the defending champion Las Vegas Aces. Both results defied the expectations that had been set around this postseason. And both franchises have now earned the right to compete for their first ever WNBA championships.

There are strong cases to be made for either team as the ultimate favorite. The Golden State Valkyries hold clear advantages in regular-season credentials, finishing 32-12 as the No. 2 seed, compared to the Dream’s 30-14 record and fourth-seed finish. 

Their defensive profile is also considerably stronger. The Golden State Valkyries finished the regular season as the best defensive team in the league, allowing just 75.1 points per game. They are also the most disciplined team with the ball, giving away only 11.5 turnovers per game, making it extremely difficult for opponents to generate easy transition offence against them.

The Atlanta Dream, on the other hand, carry a meaningful offensive advantage. Their scoring output and offensive rating both outpace the Valkyries, and their high-octane system averages nearly ten more points per game. And with Angel Reese anchoring a physical frontcourt, the Dream also hold an edge in rebounding depth that could become a decisive factor over a seven-game series.

Moreover, while both teams have clear and distinct strengths, the broader consensus beyond ESPN’s model has also leaned toward Golden State. The majority of sportsbooks list the Valkyries as slight favorites, with roughly 53 to 55 percent odds of winning the championship. 

The opinion on who has the better chance of winning is, however, divided overall. Some analysts have favored the Dream’s offensive firepower and veteran experience, particularly the proven championship pedigree that players like Jordin Canada and DeWanna Bonner bring to a starting lineup. On the other hand, proponents of the Golden State Valkyries rely on the team’s historic defensive identity and unmatched bench depth. 

But then, it is worth noting that this final will not be the first time that the two teams are facing off this season. They were involved in three encounters in the regular season. And as it appears, the head-to-head regular-season record points toward the Valkyries, who dominated the Dream 3-0 across their regular-season meetings. 

But the postseason context complicates that picture significantly. The Atlanta Dream are not just unbeaten in the playoffs, they are currently on a surging ten-game winning streak, with a momentum and collective confidence that no regular-season result can fully measure.

Overall, both teams have earned their place in this moment and are on the verge of making history, winning their first-ever championship.  Whether ESPN’s model proves prophetic or the Dream’s postseason momentum carries them over the line remains to be seen. Tip-off is Saturday.