It’s a week into the 2026 WNBA season, and the questions are already beginning to mount.

Can the Las Vegas Aces win a third title in four years? Will the New York Liberty superteam flex its muscles? How about the new tandems forming with Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever, or Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd, and the retooled Dallas Wings?

History tells its own tale, the one that ends in champagne and ticker tape parades. But the data paints a clear picture of what it takes to be a champion in the WNBA, and in 2026, only a select few teams might have what it takes to walk away as champions.

Over the past decade, a pattern has emerged for each of the last 11 WNBA champions. Based on Essentially Sports’ specialized five-factor criteria, which include parameters such as team defense and MVP-level talent, only two franchises have what it takes to win a championship in 2026.

The remaining teams are battling history.

THE 5 CHAMPIONSHIP CRITERIA

It takes a confluence of factors to earn the title of WNBA champ. We’re specifically looking at five metrics:

• Top-3 net rating profile
• Top-5 defensive rating
• MVP-level engine
• Two or more double-digit scorers
• Experienced veteran rotation (low reliance on rookies and high-variance players)

Of the past 11 champions, eight ranked in the top-3 in net rating and had top-5 defense. All of them also had multiple double-digit scorers and, most importantly, every single one of those championship teams boasted an MVP-caliber player, if not two.

The Aces are an outlier on the defense metric, sparking their recent dynasty with an elite offense led by four-time WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson.

Proficiency in four of the five categories makes a team a potential contender. And as the 2026 tips off, only two franchises qualify:

The Aces and Liberty.

Here are some of the early returns and how each team stands after the first week of games.

THE QUALIFIERS

LAS VEGAS ACES

With Wilson, all things are possible. The co-defensive player of the year, Wilson, posted 23.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG, and 2.3 blocks per contest, in addition to tying Lisa Leslie for the most-ever MVP awards.

Add double-digit scorers Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Jewell Loyd to the roster, and the Aces’ depth becomes unparalleled, making up for any lapse in team defense (ranked No. 7 and 8 their last two title-winning seasons).

The Chicago Sky are the only other defensive outlier, also finishing No. 8 overall during their 2021 title run. And in doing so, highlighted the importance of having an MVP-type player to offset a good but not great defense.

But that’s it. The rest of the past decade’s worth of champions all locked it down on defense.

EARLY RETURNS – The opening night ring ceremony didn’t go as planned for Las Vegas (2-1), who fell 99-66 to the Phoenix Mercury. But the Aces shook it off to rebound with 27-and 29-point wins over the Los Angeles Sparks and Connecticut Sun.

A’ja Wilson’s bid for a league-record fifth MVP award is off to a predictable start, as she is averaging 26.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game after recording the fifth 40-point game of her career against the Connecticut Sun. She’s not alone as Jackie Young and Chennedy Carter each posted 20-point performances. 

The loss to the Mercury appears to be a mere blip as the Aces seem to already be in midseason form.

NEW YORK LIBERTY

The 2024 champion Liberty have their eyes set on returning a title to the Big Apple and do so with arguably the most complete roster in WNBA history.

The Liberty tick all five championship boxes, led by MVP potentials Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. New head coach Chris DeMarco’s arrival from the Golden State Warriors should elevate an already potent Liberty offense that also features Jonquel Jones and Nyara Sabally.

If they can stay healthy and return to the defensive prominence of their 2024 title, then it’s not difficult to envision the Aces and Liberty squaring off in the Finals.

EARLY RETURNS – No Ionescu. No problem as the Liberty have jumped out to a 3-1 start without their star point guard in the lineup.

Their lone loss came on the road at the hands of expansion Portland (98-96), which the Liberty avenged two days later, also in Portland, with a resounding 100-82 victory courtesy of Breanna Stewart’s 22 points and 7 rebounds. 

Granted, New York’s opponents are a combined 2-6 to start the year, but the defense has held. With Ionescu expected back as soon as next week, the Liberty are far from pushing any panic buttons.

THE CONTENDERS

ATLANTA DREAM

Prior to her knee injury, Brionna Jones and the Atlanta Dream would have joined the Aces and Liberty among the qualifiers.

The Dream added Angel Reese to a defense that ranked second in the WNBA last season. While Reese (14.7 PPG, 12.6 RPG) isn’t quite on the MVP level yet, Atlanta will likely need Jones to recover to put them over the championship edge.

But without a timeline for Jones’ return, the Dream will have to fight every night.

EARLY RETURNS – The Dream (2-0) have some fight in them. Atlanta capped an unblemished opening week with wins over Minnesota and Dallas. All without Jones.

Reese poured in 14 points and 13 rebounds, and sealed the season-opening victory over the Lynx with a block at the buzzer to preserve the 91-90 win. Allisha Gray (26 points) and Jordin Canada (19 points off the bench) chipped in to fill the void left by Jones’ absence.

Most importantly, the Atlanta defense appears to be holding up early on. If the four-time all-star Jones can return in a timely manner, then the Dream should jump into the Qualifiers tier.

MINNESOTA LYNX

The injury to Napheesa Collier lands the Minnesota Lynx in the Contender category.

The back-to-back MVP runner-up (22.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG in 2025) is arguably among the top-3 players in the WNBA after leading the Lynx to a league-best 34-10 record last season. Collier is expected to return in June, unlike Dorka Juhasz, who has been ruled out indefinitely with an injured foot. Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, and No. 2 overall pick Olivia Miles remain in Minnesota, while Alanna Smith, Jessica Shepard, Natisha Hiedeman, and three others left via free agency and the expansion draft.

The Lynx are a Qualifier with Collier in the lineup. As is the case with the Dream, with Jones’ extended absence, both franchises are playing a waiting game.

EARLY RETURNS – If it weren’t for the game-saving Reese block, the Lynx (2-1) very well could be undefeated.

Minnesota is scrappy without Collier, with all three games determined by an average of three points. Miles has lived up to the hype early, averaging 16.3 points and 7 assists, while Natasha Howard added a double-double (14 points, 11 rebounds) in her return to Minnesota eight seasons after winning a title with the Lynx.

Just like the Dream, the return of Collier could easily push Minnesota among the Qualifiers.

ALMOST THERE

INDIANA FEVER

The pieces are in place. Caitlin Clark is healthy and poised for a breakout season. She’s surrounded by elite talent in Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston, as well as rookie Raven Johnson.

Clark and company will light up scoreboards with everyone’s eyes trained on the Fever this year, literally, with all 44 Indiana contests being nationally broadcast.

But history says they have an uphill climb to a title due to a defense that ranked No. 7 in 2025 without Clark.

Whereas the Aces won with a middle-of-the-road defense, they did so with arguably the league’s most dominant player in A’ja Wilson. Clark’s potential might be limitless, but she’s yet to prove that she can carry a WNBA team on her back.

EARLY RETURNS – According to the model, Indiana (1-2) lands in the Almost There category because of its potentially porous defense. Although it’s only been two games, the Fever defense has been a roller coaster.

Mitchell (30 points), Clark (20), and Boston (23) combined for 73 of the Fever’s 104 points, but still lost to Dallas (107-104) in the highly anticipated bout. That included surrendering 25 transition points. Indiana followed up that performance by clamping down on the Sparks in an 87-78 in Los Angeles. But the defense struggled once again in the very next game, with the Fever falling 104-102 to the Washington Mystics despite Caitlin Clark’s late-game heroics.

The Fever offense alone is going to win many games. But the defense will determine how they show up in the postseason.

DALLAS WINGS

The Dallas Wings might be a popular pick to win the franchise’s fourth championship and first since the 2008 season. But the upstart Wings still have an identity to establish before earning a trip to the Finals.

Azzi Fudd teams with 2025 Rookie of the Year Paige Bueckers under first-year head coach Jose Fernandez and his high-octane offensive system.

No team in the last decade has won a title in Year 2 of a rebuild. Without a proven veteran hierarchy, Dallas’ young core will need to discover their roles quickly and establish a defensive identity before they can compete against the likes of the Aces and Liberty in the postseason.

The Wings will be must-see television this year, but a championship run is likely a few seasons and key pieces away.

EARLY RETURNS – The early 1-2 record might be a bit of a misnomer with matches to begin the year against the formidable Fever, Dream, and Lynx.

Dallas got 20 points from both Paige Bueckers and Odyssey Sims (off the bench) and another 22 from Arike Ogunbowale, shooting 52.2 percent from three-point range as a team to down Indiana on opening night.

When you live by the three, however, you’re also at risk of perishing by the three. The Wings shot 15.4 percent from beyond the arc in their 77-72 loss to the Dream and only 29.4 percent versus the Lynx.

Fudd sat out the Atlanta game and has managed just 11 points in a limited role. But the positive returns are slowly starting to emerge. The team identity is in there somewhere, but how new head coach Jose Fernandez brings it out will determine if the Wings can rise in the championship model.

THE LANDING

The metrics aren’t always a slam dunk. The 2021 Sky triumphed as a No. 6 seed, while the Aces needed the resurgence of Wilson to save their season in 2025.

But 11 years of data creates a compelling checklist of what it takes to win a WNBA title in the modern era. It’s now one week into the season, and so far the model holds true.

Several high-profile teams, such as the Dream and Fever, have the potential to buck the model’s trends; however, gaps remain in their championship profile.

Can those flaws be overcome? Absolutely. But they might find themselves battling history, as well as the Aces or Liberty.