Our Fan Verdict Offers a Telling Sign on Indiana Fever’s Playoff Chances

If Hamlet didn’t tug at your heartstrings, maybe you’re made of stone, or maybe some of us just feel things too deeply. Bear with me for a moment. Now, if you’re thinking, “We’re here for basketball, why are we talking Shakespeare?” – let me just share one of our fans’ quotes about the Indiana Fever: “I’ve never witnessed a team with this much tragedy, it would give Hamlet a run.”

Where’s the lie in that?

When Indiana lifted the rose-gold Commissioner’s Cup, it was more than just a trophy. It was supposed to mark a turning point, the moment everything changed. The players believed it. The fans believed it. But as the season wore on, it turned out the ‘real turning point’ was something else entirely… One that no one saw coming. Still, can they cap this season with a playoff spot?

Our fans seem to have a clear answer.

In our flagship WNBA newsletter, She Got Game, we ran a poll asking, “Which team won’t make the playoffs?” (at the time, Indiana held the 8th seed). The options were Indiana Fever, Seattle Storm, Golden State Valkyries, and Los Angeles Sparks. While the Sparks led the vote, it was surprising to see that 96 people – way more than the 60 who picked GSV and 38 who picked the Storm – believe the Fever won’t make it!

They had strong takes and reasoning, though. 

The basketball-cum-Shakespeare fan who compared the Fever to Hamlet? Turns out they’ve been following basketball since the ’70s. They didn’t hold back, pointing fingers at both the Fever and WNBA’s management, officiating, CC’s role, and wrapping it up with that brutal line, “The thrill is gone …” Ouch!

If you remember, this season was supposed to belong to the Fever in many ways. Every major award, MVP, Sixth Woman, you name it, had an Indiana stamp on it. Even the championship odds had them placed at third. And the fact that the Fever looked like serious title contenders midway through the season, but now, they’re somehow hanging onto that final playoff spot.

+100 was the difference between the Minnesota Lynx and the Indiana Fever’s title odds back in May. Fast forward, and the difference in wins between the two teams is 10. Naturally, the hype crash had to sting for the fans. While Atlanta’s Karl Smesko emerged as the breakout first-year coach many expected Stephanie White to be, the real culprit behind Indiana’s struggles has been injuries. A lot of them! 

What started with Caitlin Clark getting sidelined three times with two different injuries (she has missed 25 games in total) ended with 3 season-ending injuries – Sydney Colson (ACL), Aari McDonald (broken bone), and Sophie Cunningham (MCL) – in a span of 10 days. Plus, DeWanna Bonner asking for a departure and joining Phoenix. 

Still, despite all this… right now, if you go and ask the Fever boss or the fandom, they will tell you, a lot of it comes down to officiating. All season long, Stephanie White’s been waving her flag. She’s not alone, though. Almost every team has had its moments with the refs. Along with her constant animated reactions, White has had some pretty heated interactions that at times even resulted in techs. Here’s one such post-game interview that had us jaw-dropped!

“When the officials don’t get control of the ballgame, when they allow that stuff to happen, and it’s been happening all season long, all season long… It’s not just this game. It’s been happening all season long. You’ve got competitive women who are the best in the world at what they do, and when you allow them to play physical, and you allow these things to happen, they’re going to compete, and they’re going to have their teammates’ backs,” White ranted back in June about the officials’ lack of control over hard fouls and excessive contact.

I’d like to lay special emphasis on something, though. You see the number of times she said ‘all season long’. Like we all know, that was the case in June and is still the case now. We can look at the way the famous Sun vs Fever was officiated. Or if we’re talking more recent happenings, we all saw Lexie Hull almost breaking her jaw after being elbowed by Kayla McBride. Many argued it should have been a Flagrant 1. But it was not. The refs gave a technical, adding yet another lore of perceived injustice to the Fever…

All this while, Sophie Cunningham has tried the ‘expressing in public’ route too, with a tinge of unhinged sarcasm. But all she ended up getting was 3 sets of fines by the league. 

Moving on.

You know, the bigger picture here is still the Fever roster.

A She Got Game reader brought it up, “The point guard situation, lack of ball handlers.” Because yes, losing four players to injury hurts, but it leaves a big void as they were all guards. Colson was supposed to back up CC at PG, and now Indy is basically rolling without a true PG from the core. Cunningham briefly tried to shoulder more responsibility before her own season ended. That leaves Kelsey Mitchell juggling her usual scoring with added playmaking duties. Her main role is still 2-guard, but in the absence of backcourt depth, she’s stepping up big as a ball handler. 

Currently, Mitchell, along with Boston, continues to hold down the fort with 20.7 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, while AB’s averages are 15.2, 8.2, and 3.6.  Still, the truth is, Indiana’s engine, the PG spot, is struggling. That obviously makes us question…if they even have it in them.

“Not enough playoff experience, not consistent,” said a fan, rightfully so.

Yes, the Indiana Fever has had high points. Like the 5-game win streak and winning the Commissioner’s Cup, but the form hasn’t been steady.  Plus, when it comes to experience, that’s exactly why the Fever brought in Bonner, Colson, and Howard; they’ve got that championship pedigree.

But, right now, if Indy makes the postseason, they’re only going to have one of those vets. Meanwhile, the core of Mitchell, Boston, and even CC if she returns, all three of them really have is last year’s playoff experience. And we all remember how that ended, getting knocked out in the first round.

So, not to sound like a pessimist, but even if Indy sneaks into the playoffs, they’re not landing as a top seed. That means they’re likely facing one of the top teams right off the bat, so the chances of getting knocked out in the first round again are pretty, pretty high. Then you’ve got some fans being brutally honest: “They don’t deserve it.” Well, we all kinda disagree, right?!

This team’s been fighting all season, battling injuries and adversity, and still keeping playoff hopes alive. They’ve earned some respect, you know? If some miracle happens, Indiana could pull a 2019 Storm scenario. I hope you remember when they lost Breanna Stewart to an Achilles tear, Sue Bird to a knee injury, and started the season without coach Dan Hughes as he underwent cancer treatment, and the Seattle side (18-16) still made it to the second playoff round!

So, at the end of the day, hope is the heartbeat of our soul. Indiana fans, keep hoping, even if nobody else believes. Either the basketball world will get the best success story, or… well, you’re looking at another heartbreak, just like She Got Game’s readers already predicted.

But maybe what everyone’s sighing about makes sense, after recent losses, the schedule ahead could be exactly what Indy needs to turn things around.

The road that could save Indiana Fever’s season

It’s true, Indiana has been treading water these past few weeks, and maybe that last drop of faith spilled during this rough stretch, losing 6 of their last 9 games. But honestly, it was expected. They had to go up against mighty Minnesota twice, courtesy of a brutal schedule. Still, Tuesday brought a spark. Indiana showed up with a mission and handed Seattle a 20-point loss. Just that one win on that one night shifted the playoff picture. 

-At the start of the day, they sat in the 8th seed, just a game ahead of 9th.

-By the end of it, they were sitting at 20–18, up to 6th place, and suddenly two games clear of the 9th spot. 

Now, six games remain… Indiana is just half a game ahead of the Valkyries and three and a half behind the Liberty. And you know what’s coming up? They’ve still got Minnesota and Phoenix on the schedule, but the other four games are vs. LA Sparks, Chicago Sky, Washington Mystics, and Golden State Valkyries.

The next one against L.A. feels interesting. The Sparks are out of the playoff bubble for now, and though Indy lost both meetings against them earlier, momentum is on the Fever’s side now. To add to that, the Sparks might have to face them without one of their best players, Rickea Jackson, who’s questionable with a right lower leg injury. 

Meanwhile, Indy finally got some good news: Chloe Bibby, who missed three straight games with a knee issue, was back on the injury-free list. Add Odyssey Sims, coming off a strong showing against Storm, and up against her former team next… it feels like the Fever have a real shot. Then comes Golden State. Sure, the expansion team has had the upper hand, but this time the ground feels a little more level. The Valkyries are banged up too, with Kayla Thornton (knee surgery), Cecilia Zandalasini (calf), and Monique Billings (ankle) all out, plus Carla Leite and Tiffany Hayes listed as day-to-day.

As for Phoenix, that one could go either way. But right after, the Fever draw Chicago, a team they’ve already swept 4–0 this season. Then there’s Washington, and let’s be real, they’re out of the race and in rough shape anyway. That means if Indy can handle business in those four, they’ll go into the regular-season finale against the Lynx already in a strong playoff position.

So…

The Verdict: Is Indy a playoff team?

Yes, they are. Well… almost. And I’m right there with ESPN, they’ve got them a 95.3% playoff chance. See, the tension was real after those back-to-back losses to Minnesota. But the Seattle win has changed things. Not only did Indy snag the win, but they dragged a direct competitor down with them. 

Seattle tumbled to 20–19 and right back to the bubble line, (now they’re 21-19). That’s the kind of two-for-one Fever fans have been waiting for.

To add to the good news string, White let slip that their star PG is back in walkthroughs, with the staff testing Caitlin Clark’s endurance next. Translation: she’s not fully cleared yet, but things are trending in the right direction. And who knows, if everything clicks, Indy could even finish as the 6th seed and (not to jinx) but you must remember a 6th seed in 2021 went on to win it all. Chicago Sky, all hail! 

But truthfully, I’d bet on the Fever grabbing a playoff spot. Deep postseason run, though? It feels like a stretch right now.