“Nonsensical Rotations,” was the reaction from one basketball analyst when looking at Team USA’s squad selections and bench options so far in the World Cup. The defending champions are looking for their fifth straight World Cup title and, on paper, look like the favorites heading into the contest against France. However, not everybody agrees with the USA’s status as the favorites, and for one such analyst, things might turn out differently.

“France is gonna beat Team USA in the FIBA World Cup due to coaching if proper changes aren’t made…Rotations are nonsensical. Veterans are given preferential treatment over more impactful young stars. Offense is stagnant & focused too much on iso/hero ball, ” wrote Jon Root in an X post on September 12.

It seems that even FIBA’s game predictor agrees with Root, as France is listed with better odds at 51.3% compared to the US’s 48.7%.

Coach Kara Lawson has come under criticism from a section of the media and analysts for not starting players like Caitlin Clark. One of the hallmarks of Clark’s game is her ability to knock down threes from distance and stretch the opponent’s defense. Also, Clark’s high-scoring pace could improve the USA’s ability to score points off the fast break, a metric that they are behind when compared to France, with the US at 14.8 PTS and France at 16.6 PTS off fast breaks.

Root’s concerns regarding a stagnant offense may have some substance as well. Team USA is behind France in major offensive metrics. France has operated with surgical precision, converting 51.6% from the floor and 44.2% from three-point range. In contrast, the United States has labored to find a consistent rhythm, posting a 45.9% field-goal percentage on a modest 31.8% of its attempts from beyond the arc.

Team USA has also struggled to convert from the FT line, registering a success rate of just 73.2% as compared to France’s 82.7%.

USA’s second group stage game against Italy exposed the gaps in this team’s style of play. Offensive rhythm was nowhere to be found in the early stages for the Americans, who tanked 10 consecutive triples before Paige Bueckers finally made one. The perimeter start highlighted an abysmal shooting night across the board, with USA converting just 28.6% of their field goals and a horrible 8.3% from beyond the arc, converting just 1 of 12 shots.

Even in their next game against Czechia, while the margin for victory improved drastically, the shooting efficiency did not. In the entire game, no US player made more than a single three-pointer, with the entire team converting just 7-of-25 shots from beyond the arc. This is not a stat line you want to see from the reigning champions.

While in head-to-head meetings, the US has an overwhelming lead over France at 13-1, there is no room for complacency. Despite eight players on the current French FIBA roster being on the 2024 Paris Olympics team that lost by one point to Team USA, they do not seem to be focused on that loss.

“That was two years ago,” said French forward Janelle Salaün about the Olympics loss two years ago. “There were different people involved, different players, so now we’re focusing on tomorrow and the here and now.”

France has good reasons for feeling confident. They have the best offense in the World Cup, led by Gabby Williams, who is averaging 18.4 points and 3.4 assists per game while shooting a staggering 56.9% from the field and 48.4% from beyond the arc.

A historic shooting display against Nigeria saw Les Bleues bury 22 of 40 from downtown, setting a new all-time FIBA record for triples in a single game. Erupting for 65 points before the break, the team set a French benchmark for first-half scoring at the Women’s World Cup and tied the second-highest opening-half mark seen in the tournament since 2000.

However, it would be very premature to write off the USA. Any brief dips in American scoring have been entirely masked by lockdown defense. Five games in, Team USA has kept opponents under 66 points, held every challenger below 38% shooting, and forced at least 15 giveaways a night with smothering defensive intensity.

Only time will tell whether or not Jon Root’s criticism and prediction hold. For now, fans get ready to see Caitlin Clark and Team USA face off against Gabby Williams and Team France for the final on September 13 in the Berlin Arena.