When the 2026 WNBA season started, many may not have believed you if you said the Golden State Valkyries and the Atlanta Dream would be contending for the title. The Valkyries made the playoffs in their inaugural season; defending champions Las Vegas Aces had momentum, while the Minnesota Lynx looked formidable at one point. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Dream hadn’t made the Finals since 2013. Yet, here we are, and our Essentially W readers have overwhelmingly voted for the Valkyries.

187 out of 226 readers who voted picked the Valkyries to win it all. That means the Valkyries bagged a whopping 82.74%. Then again, Golden State only improved as the season stretched on.

The Valkyries finished the regular season ahead of the Aces, and in the postseason they didn’t just beat the Aces in the semis; they swept them 3-0. Maybe that’s why one of our readers said:

“A talented team can always beat a collection of gifted individuals because of synergy. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.”

Then again, the Atlanta Dream have had their own resurgence, especially in the past couple of seasons. While they finished fourth behind the Aces in the regular season, they remain undefeated in the postseason and swept (3-0) the team that dominated the Lynx 2-0 in the first round: The New York Liberty.

So as the two contenders get ready for their seven-game Finals series, here’s a closer look at how they actually stack up.

The Valkyries and Dream are closer on paper than you may think

You may be wondering what we are getting at.

The Bay Area team met the Atlanta Dream three times during the 2026 regular season, and each time the result was the same. The Valkyries were able to get the win, with Game 2 being the most competitive one, where the Valkyries won by just three points.

Here’s the result from all three games:

These, coupled with the Valkyries’ league-leading defense, have given me a good reason to back Golden State. One of our readers echoed the same.

“Valkyries have the defense to do it!” added the reader.

During the regular season, the Valkyries honed their defense, allowing just 75.1 points per game, and earning a defensive rating of 99.1. However, as the Dream’s Jordin Canada has said in the lead-up to the Finals, the regular season and the postseason are not the same.

“It’s not the same in regular season as it is in playoffs. Everybody’s going to have to give a little bit more, a little bit more energy, a little bit more effort,” Canada told reporters during a press conference.

And she is right. While the defensive and offensive ratings of the two finalists have changed, with the Valkyries ‘ efficiency falling quite dramatically. Here’s how the two contending teams’ offensive and defensive ratings stack up after progressing through two rounds in the playoffs.

In quite the twist, the Dream have actually defended slightly better than the Valkyries in the postseason while playing just one game less. As a unit, neither Golden State nor Atlanta has the clear advantage at least on paper.

But what about the individual stars?

Even on that front, both teams are well aware of what their biggest stars bring to the table. Angel Reese has continued to improve her game throughout the season. Under head coach Karl Smesko, she has won the 2026 Defensive Player of the Year award, but that’s not the only area she has grown. Reese’s shooting has improved as well.

The Dunker Spot podcast highlighted exactly how that improvement has looked on paper in their latest episode while discussing the Dream’s 10-game winning streak (the last five regular-season games, and a 5-0 playoff run).

During this stretch, she has averaged 18.2 points, while shooting 53.7% on 2s, 35% on 3s, with 8.9 rebounds. In contrast, her regular season points average was 16.4, and the overall FG% was 45.1%. So it’s no surprise that the Valkyries’ head coach, Natalie Nakase, has praised Reese this week.

“She’s an ultimate ultra competitor. To me, when we were at USA, you heard her voice constantly. So when she didn’t start, you heard her,” Nakase told reporters according to a post by The Athletic on X.

“She was constantly cheering her teammates on when they needed to. She constantly called them out when we needed energy. So, understanding, she’s a huge reason why I think that team is in the finals, Atlanta, because she brings this competitive edge, and she’s not going to let any possession slip.”

Nakase’s own team has no shortage of players who could turn the tide either. Take Gabby Williams, for example.

Williams became the first player in WNBA playoff history to record at least 36 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 steals in a single game during a 108-100 overtime loss to the Dallas Wings on September 30, 2026. Just like Reese, Williams’ postseason stats are also higher than her regular season stats.

Gabby Williams is currently averaging 22.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in the postseason, up from her 14.4 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game during the regular season.

That being said, neither the Dream nor the Valkyries have made it this far completely unscathed.

The potential concerns

On October 12, Valkyries beat reporter Kenzo Fukuda revealed the Valkyries camp has been facing practice issues due to the flu.

“Valkyries team official told me that Kiah Stokes was at practice today but went home early due to some ‘congestion.’ Should be fine though. There’s been a bit of a flu thing going around the team, Veronica Burton clearly had a cough last week and through Game 3 in Vegas,” Fukuda wrote on X.

Thankfully, no major updates about players falling sick have come out since then. On the other hand, Dream star Allisha Gray had been dealing with a hand injury.

Gray picked up that injury during Game 1 against the Liberty and sat out Games 2 and 3. However, the updates that followed have been positive.

On October 13, Gray told WSB-TV that she underwent a minor procedure on her left hand.

“Progress is great. As of right now, just day-to-day, and you’ll see,” she said about playing Game 1 against the Valkyries.

Then USA Today’s senior WNBA reporter Meghan L. Hall revealed on X that Gray had played the full practice session on Friday.

Despite these potential concerns, however, both finalists have shown that they can adapt. DeWanna Bonner stepped up during Gray’s absence. You may argue that the Valkyries showed even more flexibility against the Aces.

Knowing that they couldn’t beat the Aces by playing small, Nakasae switched up her entire approach, using players like Aminata Gueye to counter the Aces’ bigs on a level playing field. Despite playing just 5 games in total this season, Gueye seamlessly linked up with the likes of Williams to give the Valkyries the win.

Maybe that was what one of our readers meant by “Great team chemistry.”