This year’s WNBA Commissioner’s Cup isn’t about winning a mid-season tournament. Instead, it’s about fostering a legacy and paving the way. Two powerhouses, Breanna Stewart’s Liberty and A’ja Wilson’s Aces, will clash at Barclays, where Vegas has historically struggled.

The game is poised to be a thriller, given the momentum of both teams. But just days ahead of the finals, WNBA analyst Sabreena Merchant has raised a specific warning sign for Wilson and the Aces.

“I think this game will be really fun,” Merchant said at the No Offseason podcast. “And the Aces have historically struggled at the Barclays Center. Like, other than their Championship win in 2023 in game four, when they were down two starters, they don’t play very well in New York.”

“So, this is a big test for a Vegas team that has started the season incredibly well as opposed to last season,” she added. “But still has a lot to prove in terms of this historical challenge for them.”

Merchant’s warning reflects a clear pattern. The Aces have struggled frequently against the Liberty at the Barclays Center. For instance, the Aces lost both of their games in the arena by double digits last season.

This venue curse extends beyond the regular season: the Liberty swept the Aces in the 2024 semifinals. Although the Aces won Game 4 of the 2023 WNBA Finals, the head-to-head record favors the Liberty at Barclays.

The Liberty’s home record is mixed: four of the team’s five losses came at home, but they retain an advantage. Nevertheless, the Liberty will definitely have the upper hand, given their home advantage.

Yet Liberty’s home record masks a deeper threat: the Aces’ roster depth and road dominance. A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young have been shredding defenses. Additionally, the Aces have lost just two road games all season.

Thus, the game will definitely not be an easy walk for either team. Analyst Annie Costabile also hinted at the enormity of this matchup during her time at the No Offseason podcast.

“The Liberty right now has the fourth-best offense and the fourth-best defense,” she added. “The Aces have the second-best offense and the seventh-best defense in the league. So, what that looks like against each other is something that I’m intrigued to see.”

The defense has seemingly become a kryptonite for the Las Vegas Aces at times this season. For instance, in the game against the Dallas Wings, A’ja Wilson and co. just couldn’t cope with the Wings’ offense, conceding a 30-point defeat.

But the Aces’ roster depth allows them to overcome defensive lapses on any given night. Furthermore, their franchise cornerstone Wilson also has a very specific aspiration from the Commissioner’s Cup final.

A’ja Wilson Emphasizes the Long-Term Ceiling of Competing in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Final

The Las Vegas Aces aren’t short of experience in playing high-stakes games. After all, they have been WNBA champions in three of the last four seasons. And even though their history at the Barclays Center doesn’t hold them in high regard, the Aces are looking to use this Commissioner’s Cup final as a high-stakes tryout for the season-end championship games.

“It’s kind of good for us to have a chance to compete for a championship midway through the season,” A’ja Wilson said as per ESPN. “It’s not going to be easy, It’s going to be tough, but I think it also sets us for October. It sets us for the August when we have to really buckle in. So we’ll get a taste of that.”

Even before the two teams square off in the finals, they will face off in the regular season as well on June 23 at the Michelob Ultra Arena. So, that game will give a perfect overview of where the two teams stand against each other.

Yet none of these regular-season games can compensate for the pressure of the finals. Both teams have ample clutch players to take the win for their respective teams. And it will eventually come down to the performance of the two teams on that specific day.

Who are you cheering for in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup finals? Do let us know in the comments.