It’s hard to talk about dominance in the East without bringing up the New York Liberty, and it’s even harder to picture them at full strength without Jonquel Jones. The 2024 WNBA Finals MVP didn’t suit up for the two games prior to the Commissioner’s Cup matchup against the Dream due to a nagging ankle injury, but her presence on both ends of the floor is as crucial as ever and with Phoenix coming in red-hot—winners of three straight—the timing of her return couldn’t be more urgent. The Liberty, despite sitting at 10–1, knows the Mercury aren’t a team to sleep on. Yes, Jones was back for the game against the Dream—but will her ankle hold up against the Mercury?

Injury Report:  Is Jonquel Jones Playing Tonight? 

Jones suffered a right ankle injury on June 5 against the Washington Mystics and missed the next two games. However, she returned for the Commissioner’s Cup game against Atlanta on June 18 and posted a double-double—10 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 assists.

According to Myles Ehrlich on X (posted June 17), “On the official injury report, Jonquel Jones is still listed as QUESTIONABLE (R. Ankle), and Leonie Fiebich remains OUT (EuroBasket). Again, based on what Sandy Brondello said today, the expectation is that JJ is good to go tomorrow.”

Brondello has made it clear that Jones will be healthy for the upcoming games.

Fiebich, meanwhile, is confirmed out. Per Jackie Powell of The Next Hoops, “Fiebich will join the German national team for EuroBasket, and as a result, has had her contract with the Liberty suspended.” That leaves the Liberty rotation thinner in terms of forward depth, but as long as Jones is playing, they won’t be too concerned.

The Mercury, on the other hand, won’t be at full strength either. Veteran guard Sami Whitcomb remains out as of June 19. Megan McConnell is also sidelined with a knee injury and isn’t expected to return until late June, per Desert Wave Media.

Still, Phoenix has looked dangerous. With Satou Sabally averaging 20.6 points per game and Kahleah Copper and Monique Akoa Makani anchoring the frontcourt, they’ve been finding ways to win without their full roster.

Starting Lineups for Tonight

New York Liberty (10–1):

• Breanna Stewart (#30)
• Jonquel Jones (#35) [if cleared]
• Nyara Sabally (#8)
• Natasha Cloud (#9)
• Sabrina Ionescu (#20)

Phoenix Mercury (9–4):

• Alyssa Thomas (#25)
• Kathryn Westbeld (#24)
• Satou Sabally (#0)
• Kahleah Copper (#2)
• Monique Akoa Makani (#8)

New York Liberty Vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction

The Liberty are coming off a narrow 86–81 win against Atlanta, but it was Sabrina Ionescu’s 34-point outburst that made the difference. Phoenix, meanwhile, just took down Connecticut 83–75 and previously stunned Vegas on the road, 76–70.

Statistically, the Liberty is the better team on paper, averaging nearly 90 points per game on 46.9% shooting and allowing just 75.1 points on the other end.
But Phoenix isn’t far behind, especially on defense, and they’re currently riding a three-game win streak under the lead of coach Nate Tibbets.

According to ESPN Analytics, the Liberty have an 83.2% chance of winning this matchup. But basketball games aren’t won on paper or prediction models. They’re won in the paint, in transition, and through toughness.

And that’s why Jones matters.
With her in the lineup, New York’s rebounding, spacing, and interior defense go from good to elite. Without her, they leave the door slightly ajar.