History has a habit of favoring the top pick. Of the 26 players who have been named the top rookie in the league, 14 have been the No. 1 overall pick in that year’s draft. Whether that coronation is unanimous or contested often rests on two things: the strength of the draft class and the rookie’s ability to dodge the injury bug. Just ask Sabrina Ionescu and Kelsey Plum. Their bids were undone by an ankle and an ill-timed injury. But lately, the WNBA’s been in agreement: Aliyah Boston in 2023, Caitlin Clark in 2024. So, can Paige Bueckers make it a hat-trick in 2025? Let’s find out. But first, here’s the math that makes our opening claim more than just a hunch.

Taking the last fifteen years into account for now – that’s 10 out of 15 “yes” votes and a clean 66.7% hit rate that bodes well for Paige Bueckers. Still, this year’s crowning might not come by unanimous decree or come at all. There’s another rookie setting the league alight, a player whose Notre Dame coach Niele Ivey once dubbed the queen. “To be the queen that she is… it’s almost like she’s been forced into the fire, and she’s handled herself so well. She’s basically doing whatever we need,” Ivey said. You guessed it, the Washington Mystics guard Sonia Citron, and she’s playing like she’s got a crown to claim. Here’s the proof:

That’s 7 of the 11 major categories where Sonia Citron holds the edge. That has made it clear that she has managed to chip away at Paige Bueckers’ lead. However, we all expected this, didn’t we? Just three games into her pro career, ESPN’s Alexa Philippou had made her observations that we are now seeing play out. “Heading into the season, Paige Bueckers was the unanimous prediction for rookie of the year,” Philippou wrote. But, in the same breath, she also named Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen of the Washington Mystics as strong contenders, who could give the Wings’ standout a run for the honor.

“Iriafen has dominated the glass (30 rebounds) and Citron has been responsible for some clutch play against both the Atlanta Dream and Connecticut Sun. … The three are the scoring front-runners for rookies, with Citron sitting at 44 points and Iriafen and Bueckers at 41 apiece (all having played three games). Might team success factor into votes? It’s plenty early, but the Wings are 0-3 while the Mystics have turned heads with a 2-1 start.”

Well, the team’s success hasn’t really come for the Wings. They sit at 8-23, while the Mystics have managed to stay ahead with a 13-17 record. So, whatever the final vote says, one thing’s certain: Bueckers won’t become the sixth player to win the honor unanimously. She probably won’t be joining Aliyah Boston (2023), A’ja Wilson (2018), Elena Delle Donne (2013), Tina Charles (2010), and Candace Parker (2008). Clark would have been in this list, too, but she fell short of just 1 (66 of 67) vote last year.

That said, the trophy remains within reach, and there’s still time for her to prove she deserves it. She was named Rookie of the Month twice consecutively for a reason. This year, though, the spotlight won’t shine on her alone, but knowing her humble nature, she likely won’t mind. After all, she’s learned from the best, who once earned 42 out of 48 votes without winning unanimously.

Paige Bueckers has the best to look forward to

2025 has been a massive year for Paige Bueckers. She led UConn to a national title, got drafted first by the Dallas Wings, and quickly became one of the WNBA’s new faces. DraftKings Sportsbook even had her as the betting favorite for Rookie of the Year. For most rookies, that would be the whole story. But for Bueckers, it’s just the beginning. Because before her (or even Caitlin Clark), there were the legends who paved the way.

One of them is Diana Taurasi, the now-retired icon Bueckers didn’t just admire but publicly called “the GOAT” on her Instagram story this past Saturday. Taurasi just partnered with Amazon Prime Video for a three-part docuseries Taurasi (premiered Aug. 7), that already has Bueckers’ attention. “The [GOAT]. You need to see this one. @dianataurasi,” she wrote. This was a meaningful tribute from one generational talent to another. It was a rising star acknowledging the player she grew up watching.

Diana Taurasi’s career sounds like the ultimate basketball fairytale. She secured three WNBA titles (2007, 2009, 2014), six Olympic gold medals, and the league’s all-time scoring record with 10,646 points. But don’t be mistaken, her legacy wasn’t built in an era of charter flights and million-dollar contracts. Like many of her peers, she had to play year-round, spending offseasons overseas just to make ends meet. Her dominance came from a grind that today’s players (even the brightest rookies) recognize and respect.

“You have to believe you can win before you can go out and win, so I think the whole season was an accomplishment,” Taurasi had said after she received the RoTY award. And maybe that’s why, even if Sonia Citron is making the Rookie of the Year race closer than expected, the bigger story for Paige Bueckers in 2025 is obvious. It’s that she’s here to keep the flame alive.