“I do think this series can go the distance. We’d all love to see that and my gut says Las Vegas will take it in six games,” said CBS Sports reporter Erica Ayala recently as part of her prediction for the ongoing Finals between the Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury. Going into Game 1, both teams were almost evenly matched. In fact, according to Bleacher Nation, the Las Vegas Aces were the favorites to win by a very narrow -3 odds. However, with the Aces now winning Game 1 by an 89-86 score, the odds have slightly tilted more towards A’ja Wilson and co, all thanks to quite a unique stat.

The IX Basketball contributor Aya Abdeen recently took to her official X account to highlight something interesting before Game 2. According to her post, there have only been 8 instances in the WNBA’s 29-year-long history in which a team that has lost Game 1 of the Finals has won the championship. Just 8. Therefore, if history is to repeat itself by looking at the odds, then the Las Vegas Aces have their 3rd championship title coming their way.

The first instance of a team losing Game 1 but winning the Finals series occurred in 1998 with the Houston Comets. Then, it repeated in 2003 with the Detroit Shock, in 2004 (Sea Storm), in 2006 (Detroit Shock), in 2007 (Phoenix Mercury), in 2015 (Minnesota Lynx), in 2017 (Minnesota Lynx), and the most recent one occurred just last year (New York Liberty).

New York Liberty’s Game 1 loss against the Minnesota Lynx occurred by a very close 95-93 margin, and that too in overtime. In fact, Sabrina Ionescu and co would have walked away with the win had it not been for the historic rally by the Lynx to recover from an 18-point deficit. The two teams were evenly matched, even in overtime.

In the end, Napheesa Collier’s turnaround jumper, with 8.8 seconds left in overtime, helped beat New York 95-93. However, after that close Game 1, the New York Liberty squad did their best to ensure they didn’t lose by close margins again. With that in mind, Game 2 was won by them by an 80-66 score, aka a 14-point margin. Despite their best efforts, Game 3 was won by Liberty by an 80-77 (3-point margin) score, and Game 5 by a 67-62 (5-point margin) score.

Game 1 between the Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury was also won by a close margin, just like the Liberty-Lynx matchup. A final game-tying attempt from Satou Sabally could have changed the course of the Finals, had it not clanked away in the final seconds. The shot was heavily contested, and even Mercury head coach Nate Tibbetts admitted to reporters after the game that he should have called a timeout. Therefore, who knows? Maybe a back-to-back Déjà vu can occur.

At the end of the day, such stats show nothing but luck. Therefore, going into Game 2, the Aces need to create their own luck. Fortunately, Becky Hammon knows just what to concentrate on.

Becky Hammon Jokingly Claims Aces Need To Focus On Defense

During the post-game presser, the Aces head coach was asked whether she has any predictions for Game 2. A’ja Wilson, who sat besides her, let out a laugh when she replied, “I have a crystal ball at home.” After that, she added, “Uh, no, I have no predictions. I predict our defense will be better”. Wilson, with a smile back on her face, said, “please predict that”. According to ‘The Athletic’s Sabreena Merchant, Game 1 ultimately came down to “Las Vegas’ speed versus Phoenix’s length.”

The Aces optimized their pace and skill. To do that, they switched to a zone defense. This majorly solved the issues the team was having earlier in the game, as Alyssa Thomas was giving them trouble by refusing to be out of the lane. Additionally, the Aces found it hard to figure out the middle pick-and-roll where a guard was setting screens for Thomas.

“I was seeing them score too much against our man (defense),” Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon said. “Them getting the ball in the paint, whether it was off the pass or penetration, was really hurting us. It was putting us very vulnerable on the back side with those 3s. So just trying something different where maybe we didn’t give up the middle so easily.”

The Las Vegas Aces or the Phoenix Mercury? Who will you be rooting for in Game 2? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.