“Offense sells tickets. Defense wins championships.” In the 2025 semifinals, that mantra has decided every game. The Fever set the tone in Game 1, the Aces clamped down in Games 2 and 3, but Game 4 flipped the script. Indiana shot just 45%, yet Las Vegas unraveled with costly lapses. Asked about it, A’ja Wilson, a three-time DPOY, had just one word.

On being asked what the Aces would stress in Game 5. A’ja said, “Defense.” Even though she had a good night on defense (3 blocks), the rest of the team seemed to be out of ideas whenever Indiana was pushing. There were countless instances of defensive breakdowns that led to easy buckets at the rim. If the Aces want to make it to the 2025 Finals against the Phoenix Mercury, they need to sort these issues out and be properly engaged on defense.

It wasn’t just A’ja Wilson who stressed on defense. Appearing in the same media availability, when asked about the difference in the teams last night, Becky said, “Just our defense. We’re better when we play off our defense. We didn’t get a lot of stops. Um, free throws. We didn’t at all affect the game, affects the flow of the game. But it was us on the defensive end.”

From the beginning of the series, the Indiana Fever’s game plan has heavily relied on playing fast. And in games where the Aces have not matched their intensity, they have lost. So, for Game 5, it is paramount that the Fever are not able to play their brand of free-flowing, pacy basketball. Right now, they have all the momentum, but as we know, in a sport like basketball, it takes just one possession to change the entire dynamic.

Are the Las Vegas Aces the Favorites to Win Game 5?

Normally, whenever a second-seeded team is playing on its home court, they are considered to be the favorite to come off with a win. But in do-or-die games, nothing is certain. While many think that the Aces hold all the advantage, the reality is, they also have the most pressure. With the kind of season the Indiana Fever had, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. And if you see them, this mentality and freedom show in their play.

Another factor that can work against the Aces is that the Indiana Fever already know how to win on the Aces’ home court. They won Game 1 there comfortably. Also, there is a strange phenomenon when it comes to the Las Vegas Aces playing at home in the playoffs. Their defense is actually worse at home than away throughout the playoffs. In the 2025 postseason, they allowed an average of 80.7 points per game, ranking seventh in the league. Even though A’ja Wilson had a record-breaking game last night, it’s fair to say that she has had an inconsistent series. She’s played great in one game and then had a poor shooting performance in just the next game.

Looking strictly from the analytics, the Aces hold the edge and have a 64.1% chance of winning the series. However, if there is anything that we’ve learned watching the Indiana Fever this year, it’s that you can never count out Indiana and their ability to pull off miracles.