Tonight’s showdown promises defensive madness. On one end, the Lynx will look to lock down their home court as the league’s top-ranked (93.7) defense. On the other hand, the Valkyries will arrive with a chip on their shoulder and the second-best (96.8) defensive rating in the W. “We want to be a No. 1 defense, so I’m hoping this pushes us a little closer,” said the Golden State HC Natalie Nakase.

The matchup is going to be a lot closer than our oddsmakers are implying. Cecilia Zandalasini could be the X-factor for the newest team in the W as they face off against her former squad, the league-leading Lynx. Her experience and inside knowledge might just give the Valkyries the edge they need. Golden State will also look to extend a two-game streak to a winning hat-trick. They have also won four of the past five and seven of their past nine games.

Where to Watch this Showdown?

Date: Saturday, July 5th
Time: 7:00 PM CT
Where: Target Center

For the folks wishing to watch it on cable services, you can choose ION, MNMT, or NBA TV, with Pat Boylan (play-by-play) and Debbie Antonelli (analysis). For viewers who are willing to opt for streaming services, this game can be watched using the WNBA League Pass, Amazon Prime US, Fubo, SlingTV, and YouTube TV.

The Injury Report

Minnesota Lynx:

• Karlie Samuelson: Out (left foot)

Samuelson is the only injured player on an otherwise healthy Lynx roster. She is on a 2-year $233,450 contract with the Lynx. Karlie went down during the 2nd quarter of their game against the Connecticut Sun on Sunday, June 29. It all happened after she logged in for just 3:19 short minutes. She collapsed to the floor in visible pain and clutched her foot. She had to be then carried to the locker room in a wheelchair.

The Lynx franchise has released an official report stating, “Samuelson will undergo surgery and subsequently miss the remainder of the 2025 season. Further updates on her progress will be provided when available.” Hence, she won’t be suiting up tonight.

Golden State Valkyries:

• Carla Leite: Out (back)

As Kenzo Fukuda of Clutchpoints.com reported, Leite is out from tonight’s matchup against the Lynx. That makes it one player’s absence from each roster.

Predicted Starting Lineup

Minnesota Lynx:

• Bridget Carleton (#6)
• Alanna Smith (#8)
• Napheesa Collier (#24)
• Kayla McBride (#21)
• Courtney Williams (#10)

Golden State Valkyries:

• Kayla Thornton (#5)
• Stephanie Talbot (#7)
• Monique Billings (#25)
• Tiffany Hayes (#15)
• Veronica Burton (#22)

How the Things Might Look

ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives the Minnesota Lynx a whopping 84.0% chance to beat the Golden State Valkyries tonight. And the numbers do back that prediction up. The Lynx aren’t just good defensively; they’re the best. Apart from leading the WNBA in defensive rating, they are also leading the field goal percentage (46.7%) category – all while giving up the fewest points per game (74.1).

Napheesa Collier, fresh off dropping 28 points, is playing out of her mind and driving Minnesota’s surge. Their last meeting with the Valkyries was an 86–75 win where they dictated the pace and smothered Golden State’s offense.

But don’t sleep on the Valkyries. They have been crashing the boards harder than anyone (league-best 37.6 RPG). Moreover, they just suffocated the Seattle Storm by holding them to 57 points. The problem? They’re the worst shooting team in the WNBA. To pull off the upset, they’ll need to feast on second-chance points and clean up their turnovers.

If lockdown defense decides this, Minnesota’s steadiness should win out, but Golden State’s toughness and rebounding could make things interesting. Stay tuned to know more as things unfold.