Heavy favorite versus the underdog. That’s what MVP races usually come down to. But the 2025 season has rewritten the script. Last year’s winner and runner-up have been locked in a back-and-forth duel, leaving little room for an outsider to sneak in. For most of the summer, Napheesa Collier looked poised for her breakthrough MVP run, edging out A’ja Wilson. The Minnesota Lynx star topped the scoring charts, anchored an elite defense, and transformed her team into a juggernaut.

Meanwhile, Wilson and the Aces appeared vulnerable. Then came the turning point, ironically delivered by Collier herself. After Minnesota handed Las Vegas its worst home loss, the Aces suddenly woke up and started steamrolling everyone in sight. Now, Collier finds herself chasing Wilson, who now carries the label of overwhelming MVP favorite at -130 odds, per BetMGM. Collier, once the frontrunner, has slipped to +100. And just when Collier needed one final push, she may have stumbled at the worst possible moment.

A strategic rest day or a costly misstep? That’s the question buzzing after Napheesa Collier decided to sit out against the Indiana Fever. An X update from Underdog confirmed she would not suit up on Tuesday, leaving her season tally at just 32 games. And that’s a number fewer than any MVP in league history.

Furthermore, many stats are no longer in her favor. Collier, however, can hardly be blamed for her absences, given that most of her missed time has come from injuries. She first sat out on May 30 against the Phoenix Mercury with knee soreness, a setback that marked the beginning of her struggles. Then, on August 2, disaster struck in the third quarter of a blowout win over the Las Vegas Aces, when she rolled her right ankle on a fastbreak and had to be helped off the court. The sprain sidelined her for around three weeks. Collier finally returned on August 24, but the damage was done. She had already missed seven games.

Now, her choice to sit out Tuesday’s game has stirred more confusion than applause among her fans.

Napheesa Collier’s fans are bewildered over the potential MVP’s decision

Napheesa Collier is now poised to miss her 11th game of this season. That alone places her below the availability level of past MVP winners, even with today’s extended schedule. One fan summed up the mood bluntly: “Really interesting. While A’ja continues to jack up shots to boost her MVP case.”

As Collier tried to recover, Wilson pounced on the opportunity. Through May, June, and July, Collier had built an ironclad MVP resume. The Lynx were 22-4 before she got hurt. She led the league in scoring while shooting 53.7 percent from the floor, ranked top five in both steals and blocks, and carried Minnesota to a plus-15 net rating with her own on-court mark sitting at plus-18.

But when Napheesa Collier went down, A’ja Wilson roared back to life. She not only sparked a turnaround for the Aces but also etched her name in history. Wilson set the all-time single-season record for 30-point games and, on August 10, 2025, delivered the league’s first-ever 30-point, 20-rebound double-double. She now tops the WNBA in points per game, blocks, and 20-point and 30-point double-doubles.

That dominance fueled plenty of fan chatter. One A’ja supporter mocked Collier’s absence, saying, “MVP resting? After missing half the season with rest? Couldn’t be my Goat!” For those same fans, Wilson’s leadership stood out just as much as her stats. She was the firestarter behind the Aces’ 14-game winning streak, using a humiliating 111-58 loss to Minnesota as motivation. After that game, Wilson warned her teammates, “If you were okay with that and not embarrassed, then we don’t need you.” Few could argue that wasn’t MVP behavior.

Still, some viewed Collier’s rest as a bigger-picture decision. “Sacrificing the MVP for a title,” one fan suggested, pointing out that the Lynx didn’t collapse without her. In her absence, they went 7-3, showing the depth of their roster. With Napheesa Collier, though, Minnesota looks elite. She remains the only player in the league to rank top five in both usage rate and true-shooting percentage. She has elevated her team to a level of excellence. Minnesota’s season-long net rating of +12.5 nearly mirrors the Aces’ +13.2 mark during their 13-game win streak. And, at the center of it all, Collier holds the league’s top plus-minus. Another fan echoed that perspective, writing, “She wanted that champ more than that MVP.”

But not everyone is ready to concede the award just yet. One defender of Collier reminded critics that playoff performance also shapes legacies: “And for the folks that have a crystal ball saying that she would rather win finals MVP, the WNBA finals is a 7-game series. Do not be like the Court counting cash before the cheque has cleared.” 

Even so, momentum is, for now, on Wilson’s side. The Aces have not lost since that infamous blowout, joining an exclusive club, matching the 2021 Connecticut Sun for the fourth-longest run in WNBA regular-season history. And at the heart of that surge is Wilson, who has forced her way back to the top of the MVP conversation. With Napheesa Collier resting down the stretch, the scales now tilt firmly in A’ja Wilson’s favor.