When Breanna Stewart asked to be substituted because of a suspected serious knee injury, the New York Liberty fans held their breath. Not only were they afraid of losing a three-time champion and one of their best players to a potential injury, but they were also going to lose their second-best player, who led them to an overtime win. Especially with 2024 Finals MVP Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu struggling in the game, it was vital for the Liberty’s bid to repeat as champions that Breanna Stewart avoid a major injury.

Luckily for the Liberty Nation, Breanna Stewart has come away with just an MCL sprain, and as of now, she is planning to suit up for the game if everything goes well. But, even before Stewie announced her intention to play the game, Jonquel Jones had already revealed her plan to help the team cope with Breanna Stewart’s absence. Her approach centered on being ultra-aggressive and shooting the ball more.

Talking to the media after yesterday’s training, Jonquel said, “i think I’ll just be more aggressive. Maybe have to shoot a little bit more. Sometimes, I think I pass first a little bit too much and I think sometimes I just got to be a little more aggressive in the space. We don’t know what tomorrow looks like but we’ll see when it comes.” 

Well the tomorrow is here and as it stands, Jonquel Jones will have hr front court partner, Breanna Stewart, available. But does that mean that she should tone down the aggressiveness? In my view, if anything, she needs to be more aggressive. When you are suffering from an MCL sprain, clearly, you are not going to be 100%. In that situation, Jonquel not only needs to be prepared to take over the offensive load from Stewie, but also the defensive load as well. Till now in the season, Jonquel is averaging 2.7 assists per game. But her passing is much more than just assists.

Ever so often, when she gets the ball, her first intention is to find a teammate for a hockey assist. Sure, it is always a bonus when your big is a great passer, but sometimes, and especially in the playoffs, they need to exploit the matchups as much as they can. In her last five games, Jonquel Jones has struggled to score and has only had a single double-digit game. While the New York Liberty might have coped till now but if they are to go on a championship run, they need Jonquel Jones to find her shooting boots as soon as possible.

It’s no secret that with Breanna Stewart’s return to action, they have an even better chance of winning. But what’s interesting is that all major analytics websites were already giving them around 75% of winning with, or without her. Let’s understand some reasons why that could be the case.

Why were the New York Liberty Overwhelming Favorites Despite Breanna Stewart’s Injury?

As mentioned above, it’s quite clear that by the end of the season, the Liberty had shifted its focus to health rather than wins. And fairly so. When your top 3 players have all missed significant time, every team in their situation would do the same. And coming into the playoffs, their plan seemed to have worked with a win against the Phoenix Mercury. Despite the scare of Stewie’s injury, the New York Liberty came away with the victory and a stolen home court advantage.

Although the fans were anxious about game 2 without Breanna, according to major analytics sites, they had more than a 75% chance of winning the game. Why? Well, it was mainly because of to correlated factors: the New York Liberty’s home record and the Phoenix Mercury’s record on the road. Throughout the regular season, the Liberty were one of the best teams at home this year with a 17-5 record. On the other side, the Mercury has a dismal 12-10 record on the road.

Also influencing the odds would be the star power Liberty possesses. Even if Breanna Stewart was out, they would still have stars such as Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, and Natasha Cloud. Especially with Natasha Cloud playing against the Mercury with some added motivation, it might not be far-fetched to assume that at the moment, the New York Liberty doesn’t have a Big 3, but a Big 4.

With odds stacked so much against them, and with Breanna Stewart returning in all likelihood, it will be very interesting to see how the Phoenix Mercury can find a way to extend the series or will New York become the first team to lock in its place in the second round?