The Phoenix Mercury entered the WNBA finals as a strong contender based on how they outperformed the two better teams, the Liberty and Lynx, in the respective rounds. Even in the Finals’ Game 1, they held it for most of the time, but Alyssa Thomas missed both the free throws, and the Aces took away the win. Game 2 followed the script that everybody expected: Aces crushed them. Now, as the series heads back to Phoenix, it is a do-or-die opportunity for Nate Tibbetts’ side.

WNBA analysts Natalie Esquire and Meghan Hall stressed the importance of Game 3 for the Phoenix Mercury while giving a preview. Discussing whether she expected the Mercury to win the game, Natalie said, “I expect them to win because if they lose that game, that’s it. The series is done. At that point, like even if they were to win game four just for some pride, so they don’t get swept, like if the Aces go up 3, there’s no coming back from that. And so, they really need to get to Phoenix and win Game three.” 

Sports do have their unexpected moments, but that’s rare. Even in the NBA, no one has managed to chase 4 wins in the playoffs after 3 straight losses. The Mercury, for all their bravery, at least aren’t capable of pulling such a script against a team that has had a 17-win streak this season, with the MVP playing in red-hot form. So to avoid that, the best bet is to take the home court easily, take 1, and still be in the competition.

Four teams have pushed it to Game 7, but neither has won. In the 1951 NBA Finals, it was between the New York Knicks vs the Rochester Royals (Now Sacramento Kings). After decades, it was in the 1994 Western Conference Semifinals between the Nuggets and the Jazz. Nine years later, in 2003 Western Conference First Round between the Trail Blazers and Mavericks. The latest addition is the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals, in which the Celtics faced off against the Miami Heat.

Even Natalie gave her reasons for saying why she expects the Mercury to win the game. She stressed the role the Phoenix Mercury’s fanbase (X Factor) will play. Also, the Phoenix’s bench strength tends to play better on the home court because having some scoring punch from the bench is very important. Their role becomes even more important because Mercury’s two most important players are clearly not going to be at 100%.

With the Aces already up two games, the Mercury need to bring their A-game if they want to make the finals interesting. While Game 3 might not be the win-or-go-home game like the past, there is little to no room for error. Though it will be the first time that we are seeing a best-of-seven final series in the WNBA, the precedent from other leagues is not encouraging.  But with the momentum the Aces have with them, is there any way the Phoenix Mercury can stop them?

How can the Phoenix Mercury mount a comeback in Game 3?

As hard a task as it might be, the Phoenix Mercury can still level the series if they can win their home games. However, going by the odds, it’s not looking like a positive picture. According to ESPN analytics, the Las Vegas Aces are favored to win Game 3. As things stand, they have a 53.8% chance of winning the game. But let’s not forget the Phoenix Mercury has already defied the odds in the first round against the New York Liberty.

To repeat that results the Phoenix Mercury need to bring Alyssa Thomas back to her aggressive best on both ends. In Game 2, she was only able to attempt 9 shots. That is not the level an MVP contender and the best player of a finals team should be. Granted, she is struggling with a left-hand injury, but when it comes to the finals, the Phoenix Mercury need her to perform. Similarly, Satou Sabally is also under close monitoring for the game. She suffered an ankle injury late in Game 2.

The Mercury needs Satau’s back. And if she can suit up, they need her to increase her 3-point output from 2-9 to 7-10 or more. But the biggest player that the Phoenix Mercury wants to click is DeWanna Bonner. As of now, she is averaging just 7 points per game in the finals. This is far below her career average. The main reason for the Las Vegas Aces ‘ win the Game 1 was Dana Evans’ performance off the bench. If the Phoenix Mercury are to make a comeback, they need DeWanna Bonner to conjure up something similar.

Will the Phoenix Mercury use its home court advantage and make a comeback in the series? Or will the Aces make quick work of them and add another Championship to their collection? We’ll know in just a couple of days.