“You know, it took us too long to wake up and play defense. I think the second half is our basketball and how we play. So, shame on us for not coming out the way that we needed to come out,” said Alyssa Thomas after her team lost Game 3 to an A’ja Wilson masterclass. Down 0-3 and staring at a sweep, this wasn’t what anyone expected before the series began. No team in WNBA history has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit to win a series–so could Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces be the first time we witness it?

“We gotta take one game at a time,” said coach Nate Tibbetts when asked if his team could still mount a comeback. The Mercury have bounced back from a game down to win the series against the Liberty and Lynx this postseason, but coming back from 0-3 feels like a tall order–especially when you consider the current form of A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young, who combined for 55 points in the last game.

To make matters worse for the Mercury, they’ll be without Satou Sabally, who suffered a concussion late in Game 3. With about four minutes left on the clock, she went up for an offensive rebound, got tangled with Jackie Young, and collided with Kierstan Bell’s knee on the way down.

As the series heads to what could be its final game at the Phoenix Arena–now renamed the Mortgage Matchup Center–here’s everything you need to know about the matchup.

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces: Where to watch

Date: Friday, October 10, 2025
Time: 8 p.m. EDT
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Watch on: ESPN
Streaming: Fubo and WNBA TV

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces: Injury Report

Phoenix Mercury

• Satou Sabally – OUT

Las Vegas Aces

• No injured players

Probable Starting Lineups

Phoenix Mercury

• Alyssa Thomas
• Natasha Mack
• DeWanna Bonner
• Kahleah Copper
• Monique Akoa Makani

Las Vegas Aces 

• NaLyssa Smith
• Kierstan Bell
• A’ja Wilson
• Chelsea Gray
• Jackie Young

Prediction: Can the Mercury win Game 4?

The Mercury went into Game 3 with a fresh plan to contain A’ja Wilson–putting Alyssa Thomas on Chelsea Gray and keeping Natasha Mack on Wilson. But the strategy backfired fast. By halftime, Phoenix had already given up 55 points. The most they’ve allowed in a single half this postseason.

From the opening tip to the final buzzer, it was all A’ja Wilson. The four-time MVP dominated every inch of the floor, putting up 34 points, 14 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 blocks. It marked her ninth career 30-point playoff outing and her fourth this postseason–both standing as all-time records.

Credit to the Mercury — they refused to go down without a fight. Trailing by 17, they clawed their way back in the fourth quarter behind Kahleah Copper and DeWanna Bonner, who combined for 20 of Phoenix’s 29 points in the final 10 minutes. Copper scored 11 straight points, while Bonner tied the game twice in the closing minutes. But just when it looked like a comeback was on the cards, A’ja Wilson’s buzzer-beater crushed Phoenix’s hopes once again.

Alyssa Thomas bounced back after her underwhelming Game 2, where she posted just 10 points, six rebounds, and five assists — her least productive outing of the postseason. This time, she came just one assist shy of recording what would’ve been her sixth career playoff triple-double. However, heading into Game 4, the Mercury will be without a key piece in Satou Sabally, who scored 24 points in the previous matchup and leads the team in points per game in both the regular season and postseason. Sabally was averaging 19 points and 7 rebounds per game this postseason, and the Mercury will definitely feel her absence in their do-or-die fixture.

Naturally, ESPN gives the Aces a 53.9% chance of winning Game 4 and completing the sweep. It’s not just because they’re averaging 87.8 points per game while shooting a scorching 47.8% from the field–the best among all postseason teams–but also because Coach Becky Hammon has tactically outclassed Nate Tibbetts at every turn. The clearest example came when she switched to a zone defense to limit Alyssa Thomas’ impact.

While we’d love for this series to stretch to Game 7, it looks highly likely that the Aces will take Game 4 and claim their third championship. Who do you think will come out on top? Let us know in the comments below!