After the Las Vegas Aces protected their home court advantage, the series heads to Phoenix. The Aces will land at the Mortgage Matchup Center looking to win two more and lift the trophy. While the Aces did come out from the first leg of games with a 2-0 lead, it wasn’t as straightforward as the scoreboard shows. In Game 1, they were on the verge of needing a game-winner had Alyssa Thomas made both her free throws in the final seconds. But that’s all for now. Both teams will look to the future now.

While the Las Vegas Aces hope to wrap things up quickly, the Phoenix Mercury will focus on making a comeback and pushing the game back to the Aces’ floor. The odds are heavily in the Las Vegas Aces’ favor with how things stand now. But in professional sports, the odds can change in a heartbeat. The Mercury has already displayed its ability to beat the odds when it knocked out the defending champions, the New York Liberty. With Game 3 just around the horizon, let’s look at the factors that can dictate the outcome of Game 3 of this exciting 2025 WNBA Finals series.

What are the factors in favor of the Las Vegas Aces?

First and foremost, the most significant factor favoring the Aces is having the only four-time MVP, A’ja Wilson, in their ranks. Throughout the second half of the season, A’ja’s and the Aces’ turnaround has been nothing short of a miracle. The Aces will always be in contention if she’s fit and ready to go. Her mere presence and aura instill fear in her rivals on the rare occasions she struggles to put the ball into the basket.

Another significant advantage the Aces have is their strength off the bench. While everyone was expecting Jewell Loyd to be the leader off the bench, Dana Evans seems to have come out of the syllabus. In Game 1, she was the joint top-scorer with 21 points. Sure, she had a quiet Game 2, but if your bench has players who can get the team a win in the finals, that puts your opponents on the back foot.

Likewise, health and fitness remain crucial components for the Aces. Not to jinx it, but the Aces have had lady luck with fewer injuries to players. It’s the exact opposite for Mercury. In Game 3, the Mercury’s two best players, Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally, are facing injury concerns. In fact, Sabally’s presence in the game is not even confirmed till now. If the Aces can avoid any significant injuries, they should be able to wrap up the series sooner rather than later.

What are the factors in favor of the Phoenix Mercury?

Conversely, Mercury’s most significant factor in its favor is its home crowd. Throughout the season, the Phoenix Mercury were one of the best teams at home, ending the season 15-7. Compared to some of the best atmospheres in the NBA, like Madison Square Garden, the Mortgage Matchup Center bounces on big game occasions. Sure, players like A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young might handle it, but the younger players off the bench might buckle under the pressure.

Another factor favoring the Phoenix Mercury is the history of role players performing better at home. With the crowd behind them and in familiar surroundings, the bench players are more confident when they play at home. Until now, the Mercury’s bench, especially DeWanna Bonner, has had a Finals series to forget. They hope that playing at home boosts their confidence and helps them find their shooting boots.

The crowd can also help the Phoenix Mercury sustain their aggressive defense. In both games, the Mercury have started the game with a bang. In fact, in Game 2, they even held an eight-point lead in the first quarter. However, they were not able to sustain it for the entire game. With an extra boost and added motivation to defend their home court, the Mercury might be able to sustain the pressure and choke the Las Vegas Aces’ offense for an all-important Game 3 win.

It remains to be seen whether the Mercury defends their home court or the Aces breach the fort. But the Phoenix Mercury needs to win Game 3 if they want to keep their championship dreams alive. Sure, we are not at the win-or-go-home stage, but history has shown that coming back from a 3-0 deficit is almost impossible.